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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Double what 18z showed FWIW... I think 18z GEFS showed 6 hits... 00z looks like 13 hits, but 2 (p02 and p13) I'm guessing either came through with snow for us the prior 6 hours or they are actually that far NW in their track

If there is one model trend we can count on, it’s the GFS bumping northward/northwestward in the last 72 hours of a storm. It happens every single time.
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15 minutes ago, yoda said:

Double what 18z showed FWIW... I think 18z GEFS showed 6 hits... 00z looks like 13 hits, but 2 (p02 and p13) I'm guessing either came through with snow for us the prior 6 hours or they are actually that far NW in their track

2 was a glancing hit (much better for northern and western areas) and 13 was indeed a good hit.  

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Mount Holly be like- what happened to the cold?

Coming out of the weekend guidance has taken a fairly large shift. Previously a cold arctic airmass was anticipated to drop south over the central CONUS ushering in a well below normal airmass, however with the 18z and 00z suite, guidance is not nearly as bullish on the cold air dropping out of Canada. I`m hesitant to go all in on newer guidance and suggest near normal temperatures for next week such as the 00z deterministic guidance indicates, so I`ve offered a compromise of a slight trend towards a warmer solution for next week.

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So can any one tell me what happen to the artic air? I kept hearing to much artic air and it will suppress the storm etc. Yesterday my high's for next week were all in the low 20s and lows in the low teens. now its low 40s for highs and upper 20s for lows? Yet the storm on some models is suppressed  south? Why did the artic air not end up showing up now for next week? even sunday now is 43 when before it was 33.

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1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Temps near 50 and no cold in sight or did it flip back to cold? I thought I was looking at the wrong 10 day on my point and click. Went from deep winter to spring next week in 24 hours.

Well its still not very cold. If the storm misses and we are partly sunny temps are in the 40s. It isn't even very cold with precipitation falling on the 6z run. Verbatim it is probably mostly rain with temps in the mid to upper 30s here, despite what the pretty WB maps imply.

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