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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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4 minutes ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman

Cold air gone for next week, big change. Well, at least according to the GFS. 

1612882800-lczZmfBdDg4.png

It’s still lurking but gfs splits the PV and the dominant peace stays out west which pumps a ridge in the east. Previously guidance was elongating but sliding the dominant PV lobe east. The 6z eps went to that idea also.  

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sunday isn’t dead imo. That’s the kind of wave that can trend better the final 72 hours. But it’s tricky and I’m not wasting time on every little trend at range. 

Me too, time for a break. 

If next week changes like that, the entire evolution of the month might change. 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And that is exactly what my memory says about most Nina cold outbreaks

I’m not really tracking cold. I care about snow. Seeing the Arctic shot didn’t excite me. Now seeing too much eastern ridge is a problem. But if that is slightly overdone it’s fine for getting waves. I don’t want the PV over us. 

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1 minute ago, frd said:

Like I said earlier, nothing this winter is easy. 

 

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I’m not really tracking cold. I care about snow. Seeing the Arctic shot didn’t excite me. Now seeing too much eastern ridge is a problem. But if that is slightly overdone it’s fine for getting waves. I don’t want the PV over us. 

Agree with both. I think the ridging is the reason the cold can’t seem to make it in Ninas. For whatever reasons the models under estimate the ridging out in time but tend to see it as we get closer.

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1 minute ago, frd said:

Like I said earlier, nothing this winter is easy. 

Yeah but were in the game. last year the game was cancelled. These are just the ebbs and flows that go with the territory when you love snow. Let's see if these changes for next week are for real in next few model cycles and if they are I still  think the rest of February will be workable.

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The SE ridge will be suppressed somewhat.  That is a LOT of cold pressing and a lot of blocking up top.  We don't want to be in the core of the cold.  That would be dry.  We want to be near the boundary.  This was a huge change from previous runs...guidance suddenly decided to split the PV and dump the larger part to our west which allows more ridge.  But that can be a good thing if we end up near the boundary.  GFS still ends up with a snowstorm just to our NW and then another just to our south.  I highly doubt the boundary shifts so far NW that we are not at least in the game.  

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17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There was a time a couple of weeks ago that the models saw a full latitude ridge in the east. That failed completely.

The block has been pretty effective in mitigating any SE ridge tendency, despite guidance attempting to pop it. For whatever reason in the LR, the models tend to go back to boilerplate Nina look, but it never really happens.

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