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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, nj2va said:

One of the things I'm trying to learn is how to read that map and tell if its a cold/dry look (I get the placement of the NAO/AO/EPO/etc).  But to me that would seem to suggest NS dominated and/or cold/dry.  Deepest low heights are centered over the great lakes.

That's just the general pattern going forward, and yes it does look cold and dry somewhat but the mean skews/washes out any PNA spike or brief relaxation in the block. The biggest plus in that map is we will actually have a real cold air source. It's game on essentially

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17 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Could be a record -AO start to Winter through February, love to see how this evolves 

f156.gif

I just saw a forecast low of 11 degrees for Monday, Feb 08. Is that real? Likely to change? Should I buy a propane heater for my greenhouse, just in case?

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1 minute ago, wlantry said:

I just saw a forecast low of 11 degrees for Monday, Feb 08. Is that real? Likely to change? Should I buy a propane heater for my greenhouse, just in case?

A 7-day forecast is always going to change except under extreme rare circumstances. Even a 5-day is likely to shift - though hopefully not as much. 

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2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The GFS has been showing precip along the cold frontal passage at the edge of the arctic airmass at 6-7 days.  Those can be squall-y and fun if it comes together right.  Something to keep an eye one.

prateptype_cat.us_ma.thumb.png.243ea1732b8256f912033f423a0a1578.png

       This caught my eye too.       This would be a line of heavy snow squalls that caused a disaster on the roads as temps plummeted behind it.    Something like this happened here a few years ago on Valentine's Day 2015.

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24 minutes ago, high risk said:

prateptype_cat.us_ma.thumb.png.243ea1732b8256f912033f423a0a1578.png

       This caught my eye too.       This would be a line of heavy snow squalls that caused a disaster on the roads as temps plummeted behind it.    Something like this happened here a few years ago on Valentine's Day 2015.

Yes...just looking at that now, myself.  It definitely looks very much like the event in Feb. 2015 with a couple hours squall followed by a literal blast of cold (2" snow at my place from that).  That is a strikingly similar look, honestly, if it were to play out as shown.

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs has period of snow sleet Friday morning then Sunday.  I'll take CMC for Sunday. 

CMC similar to the GFS for the weekend with blasting a front through, but actually a little later it appears (more like Sunday night as opposed to earlier in the day).

I'll have what the CMC is smokin' for next Wednesday (Feb. 10)!

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