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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I worked it backwards mostly. I def had general background knowledge and understood a fair amount in general but not nearly as much as you might think just 15 years ago. I never even used or learned about 500mb ht and vort panels until eastern. I quickly learned far more about what they mean verbatim/reality than what they actually mean scientifically.  Basically, I quickly memorized what to get excited about and what to get nervous about even before I knew how/why they existed in the first place. It was nothing more than thinking "oooh, that's what I'm looking for" or "ah crap, this is ugly". But it was mostly visual and nothing savvy. THEN I learned why they exist and did the same thing (slowly) with every other important level. That's straight up backwards really right? 

I knew panels were good or trending good or bad or whatever simply because I knew what to visually recognize. Absolutely nothing to do with in depth meteorology like physics/dynamics/laws and all the other stuff they teach mets at very expensive colleges for a career that is insulting in the paycheck dept (imo only. Seems unfair and wrong to me but that's another giant can of worms to debate).

I did have a massive breakthrough 2011-12 when I started envisioning the atmosphere overhead like a sandwich. Each surface/mid/upper level panel is a piece of bread, cheese, tomato, meat, etc. There's a lot of important things overhead with each and every event but each event has it's own set of important things. That's complicated! 

 Then I organized my thoughts based on complexity and started calling setups things like a grilled cheese (simple overrunning), or ham and cheese (single stream wave), or club (dual stream phase/transfer etc), or imported italian cold cut (complicated multi part phase/transfer etc). Havent had a triple phase 93 redux at close enough range to name a sandwhich after it. Hopefully before I'm dead. All this stuff probably sounds funny AF but dammit it was a breakthrough. 

So once I classified groups of events into different sandwiches I started honing in on the most important ingredients (levels) to events and that allowed me to systematically pull the proper ingredients based on the event's general characteristics.  This made me really fast and efficient at looking at the proper important stuff and not wasting time (or confusing myself) looking at dumb stuff. Like using american cheeze on a pastrami sandwich. Who the hell does that sh!t anyways?

Anyways, I think  this should help someome somewhere understand it's only as complicated as you want to make it and anyone can learn if they really want to. If I post a 250mb jet panel then you already know I'm thinking club sandwich coastal or better and things like that. I never post a random level. I might be out to lunch with my analysis but there is a very specific reason I'm looking at it based on my filing system. I'm always improving to make it easier too. 

Damn, super long ass post but it gives some really good insight on one way to tackle this as an enthusiest. Knowledge of physics and calculus etc are absolutely not a barrier to entry for a weenie to take it to the next level. If someone want to climb the weenie ladder, get away from surface panels and start working on 500mb skills. Skilled weenieism begins at 500mbs. No shortcuts there. I really hope this helps someone because dayum I'm a typing fool. 

Do triple phaser like 93 happen regularly around the globe?  But just not over the eastern portion of the US.. or was that a true global phenomenon event?

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2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Well 18z GFS is on board for something next weekend.  Not like the EUro of course, but it's interesting

Euro shows something around the same time frame from what I see.  Looks 24 hours delayed though coming through on 2/7 vs 2/6 (GFS)

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18 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Great! Now we have a storm classification system! Maybe I will slap that in a graphic for reference when we get closer to events! Good stuff @Bob Chill ! 

I actually thought about this coming up after I posted and almost went back and edited a bunch of stuff. I know it sounds funny as hell to do because it is but this system is pretty personal. More than a little work went into it. I use tricks like this for all kinds of complex topics I'm either required to learn or just for recreation. I dont want it to become a board thing. 

 

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I actually thought about this coming up after I posted and almost went back and edited a bunch of stuff. I know it sounds funny as hell to do because it is but this system is pretty personal. More than a little work went into it. I use tricks like this for all kinds of complex topics I'm either required to learn or just for recreation. I dont want it to become a board thing. 

 

Too late...lol

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53 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Thanks for that post @Bob Chill. I think your learning method explains how non-mets can still gain a lot of knowledge in weather. Sounds like you are a more visual person, no? (i.e. your sandwich analogy, lol) I tend to be when it comes to learning things (auditory learning as well)...but if you can learn weather by "seeing" per se...that gives me some confidence that I can as well!

Absolutely 100% preferred visual learner. I'm very good with math/numbers and logic. Literally despise literature like Shakespeare. I'd rather stab myself in the eyes repeatedly with a 9" ice pick than be forced to read Macbeth again. I also couldn't write a grammatically correct paragraph if my life depended on it. This should give you a good idea where I stand with strengths and weaknesses :lol:

The internet has been a more important tool for me than any of my education or work experience. I get to choose what format to acquire knowledge which kicks ass for hobby type interests. I've always been a decent backyard mechanic but chilton manuals and schematics are really crappy at teaching (me) how to do a complicated repair. I'm good with the schematics but that doesnt show you the smart way to disassemble and reassemble and all the tips and tricks to do it without breaking something or taking far longer than it should. Then comes youtube... it took time to build a literal encyclopedia but nowadays every make and model common repair has DIYs. I've taken apart the entire valve train of a motor and put it back together with new parts in 2 days. Had a laptop sitting right there and went step by step.

No chance I can pull this stuff off without the internet. I can only imagine how much much of my potential I could have uncovered had I had the net when I was a kid. Of course if I was young nowadays I'd be wasting all my time on IG, tik tok, or twatter. Lol. I hope people read this post and back off on time suck social media and learn something your interested in. Knowledge is only power when you put effort into the right things. 

 

 

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Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

At least we don't need to deal with a Miller B style storm like today and it is just a miller A storm and we just have to worry about it raining or going to the south.

Not even a fan of Miller A.  Would rather a stalled front to our south in a blocked pattern with a pineapple connection.  

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38 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I hope people read this post and back off on time suck social media and learn something your interested in. Knowledge is only power when you put effort into the right things. 

That’s why I’m here. Of course being interested in this has drawn interest away from classwork, which i better go do, because class wasn’t cancelled. I’m not really into time-suck social media, only to watch people rant and complain.

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2 hours ago, blueberryfaygo said:

Do triple phaser like 93 happen regularly around the globe?  But just not over the eastern portion of the US.. or was that a true global phenomenon event?

I honestly dont know but I dont know why there wouldnt be other than the US's narrow width and bordered by 2 big oceans. That's the logical potential issue that comes to mind but honestly, I really only have expertise in 17k' square feet of grass and trees NE of rockville town center. Pretty good with Summit County CO. Outside of that I'm only as good as a point and click forecast :lol:

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

00z Euro is a dud for next weekend’s storm.  500 doesn’t look as good and the storm pops late and is weak.  
 

Would love to hit on this storm, even if minor, and then have the Arctic chill follow it.

Didn’t look at any of the other 0z guidance. Did any other ops key in on anything during this frame? 

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