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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Since we can't rely on pattern...let's talk thermals: How's it looking after next week's warm-up? (serious question). And signs of any actual cold?

I've been checking in everyday on the 18Z GEFS ensemble mean temps.  So far, it is not advertising any notable cold.

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28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Given how this month has gone...I'm not even gonna be convinced of anything until I see legit cold air...

I agree with that assessment.

I'm not saying that just because the GEFS isn't showing cold there can't be cold.  I'm just saying that as of now, the GEFS is not advertising any significant cold.

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12 hours ago, cbmclean said:

I agree with that assessment.

I'm not saying that just because the GEFS isn't showing cold there can't be cold.  I'm just saying that as of now, the GEFS is not advertising any significant cold.

Some decent cold air potential during this period on the EPS. There is a mechanism to inject cold southward between the WPO/Chukchi ridge and the TPV, but most of it ends up out west. For this period, the Pac improves enough to allow the mean trough to shift eastward, but it appears to be transient on the means. A long way out so we will just have to monitor the trends as always.

1612699200-qIEVnhdRRhM.png

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The relaxation looks brief. By mid Feb we look right back into it. 
77CE54F6-E780-4B36-A12C-1B63CA69BBAA.thumb.png.84dcba434e861227290cbdd757c4220c.png

I guarantee if everything else there is correct that SE ridge won’t last long. plus even with that ridge the cold is pressing. Look where the boundary is. 
EA41FE87-A2F4-4748-ABFF-EA0E8438AEA1.thumb.png.638367d701d0656357ef6231ebb2570b.png

Looks like the pattern is rebooting only with a lot more cold to work with. 

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14 hours ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Of course they lean warm

Just a small annoyance on what BAMWX says in this tweet:

Model output isn't data, it's information. Data is unstructured, raw material without meaning until structured and aligned with other data. Information is the output of structured data that has meaning and context for users.

Long range looks quite promising. 

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2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Maybe setting us up for our late February or early March HECS when the pattern relaxes again?

We can get a pretty good event with an extremely -AO so long as there isn’t a too suppressive NAO block. So it will depend on details we can’t see yet. But it’s good. 

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On 1/26/2021 at 8:16 PM, psuhoffman said:
We can get a pretty good event with an extremely -AO so long as there isn’t a too suppressive NAO block. So it will depend on details we can’t see yet. But it’s good. 

This is so depressing @psuhoffman
 

 


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Dude.. A -500dm west-based -NAO on January 26th, and it doesn't snow, it rains? It's like 50 degrees. The Pacific Ocean is a current that is closing in general, unless something more volitiale happens. I'm about to give up on this hobby. We could still see the occasional blizzard, but it will only last for like 2-3 days. 

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2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

 

NAO remains firmly negative as does AO. Looks like we finally get a -EPO in 10 days or so. Tonight's GFS advertising some serious cold 2nd week of February.

 

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@MillvilleWx btw have you looked at what mid February looks like?  We might have some fun times ahead. 

Well that was one hell of a GFS extended run. @HighStakes nailed it on the head. Plenty of waves to contend with too and baroclinic zone pressed to the south, which prevents the cutter potential. Hell, even a marginal low track can bring winter that those kind of temp anomalies. Hopefully the trend for that time frame continues. That's historically the meat and potatoes for snow events back home. 

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6 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

 

Well that was one hell of a GFS extended run. @HighStakes nailed it on the head. Plenty of waves to contend with too and baroclinic zone pressed to the south, which prevents the cutter potential. Hell, even a marginal low track can bring winter that those kind of temp anomalies. Hopefully the trend for that time frame continues. That's historically the meat and potatoes for snow events back home. 

 

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