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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic
16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wish that was farther W and crawling the coast but given it is progged to keep trucking E could still pack a quick punch with those dynamics in the Mid Atlantic and near the coast.

Like I said last night this setup reminds me of PD1. Now that was a max anomalous outcome so that doesn’t mean we get that exact outcome. But I expect models are underestimating the intensity of lift along the inverted trough as it slams into the confluence from the block.  If that setup holds there will be some pretty good banding stretched NW along the trough from the surface low.  It will hit a brick wall though somewhere. My guess is Philly ends up ok but it’s close...any further north though...:yikes:

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Like I said last night this setup reminds me of PD1. Now that was a max anomalous outcome so that doesn’t mean we get that exact outcome. But I expect models are underestimating the intensity of lift along the inverted trough as it slams into the confluence from the block.  If that setup holds there will be some pretty good banding stretched NW along the trough from the surface low.  It will hit a brick wall though somewhere. My guess is Philly ends up ok but it’s close...any further north though...:yikes:

Is that a good :yikes: or a concerned about downside :yikes:

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  • mappy pinned this topic
7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Going to unpin this temporarily as we have plenty to track within the next week. If any people really want to talk early February, this is the place.

oops. i just repinned it. 

edit to add: i unpinned it again. sorry!

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  • mappy unpinned this topic
22 minutes ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman

Even going into early Feb , not bad.  You said it would be decent until the retrogression gets us to around the 3  rd. Here we are at the 5 th,

 

 57AFBC32-507C-4FA1-BB29-46508675F0ED.png

 

 

That’s a cutter look though. Way too much ridge in front. If we were to see a 50/50 in future looks it could morph into a transfer setup but the first wave as the trough progresses east (after reversal from current retrogression) is likely a cutter. After that we could get waves depending on how suppressed the SE ridge gets. Too far out to guess yet. Feb is murky but not a shutout look Imo. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s a cutter look though. Way too much ridge in front. If we were to see a 50/50 in future looks it could morph into a transfer setup but the first wave as the trough progresses east (after reversal from current retrogression) is likely a cutter. After that we could get waves depending on how suppressed the SE ridge gets. Too far out to guess yet. Feb is murky but not a shutout look Imo. 

Yes, Feb. may not be a shutout. Regarding March,  I am intrigued if we can maintain the  - NAO going into March when the wavelengths shorten. Who knows maybe the coldest to average temps could sneak into that time period. Being a shoulder month with a weaker vortex and another Pac retraction. 

 

Here is mid Feb

 

Screenshot_20210121-153540_Chrome.jpg

 

 

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EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 9 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1

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19 minutes ago, frd said:

Yes, Feb. may not be a shutout. Regarding March,  I am intrigued if we can maintain the  - NAO going into March when the wavelengths shorten. Who knows maybe the coldest to average temps could sneak into that time period. Being a shoulder month with a weaker vortex and another Pac retraction. 

 

Here is mid Feb

 

Screenshot_20210121-153540_Chrome.jpg

 

 

That’s actually a pretty good look. Shades of 2014 and 2015. Those years achieved that through a different mechanism on the Atlantic side...a trapped tpv. That setup has pac ridge further west but a -NAO to offset. The result is a similar pattern over the conus. Wouldn’t be as cold but a good storm track in Feb and early March is ok so long as we’re not torching and we shouldn’t be in that look. 

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33 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

How many final blows can the PV take in one season?

It has weakened and looks to remain so. This next attempt may simply  help achieve another round of -AO and hopefully a - NAM state extension or another cycle of it during the month of February. 

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Retreat! 

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 10 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0

(With next week's east coast storm ~ a week away, this will be the last post of this type in the long-range forum) 

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