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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS mean gives me like 10” through the end of next week lol. I’ll take that.

Three waves each with successively more upside.  I have been keying on the 28-30th as the time period that made most sense as everything retrogrades and the ridge should pull west enough to get east coast amplification and cold (whatever there is) to time to.  But the eps are split between the wave around the 28/29 and one around the 30/31.  The 30/31 might have the best chance to turn the corner amplify up the coast. The h5 look through that 5 day period is classic. 
1BF69501-37A3-4C1F-BF25-009EFE057CA9.thumb.png.219050050452742d00ace8c062e2e0df.png
3021E5F5-83C5-48B6-A507-5ADA3EF4EFC3.thumb.png.3f90d2f448be3697e3092b0fd31d08f7.png

@Ji We cannot waste this.  This isn’t a pattern we’re going to get that often.  I honestly dunno what it will take if this doesn’t work!
 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Three waves each with successively more upside.  I have been keying on the 28-30th as the time period that made most sense as everything retrogrades and the ridge should pull west enough to get east coast amplification.  But the eps are split between the wave around the 28/29 and one around the 30/31.  The 30/31 might have the best chance to turn the corner amplify up the coast. The h5 look through that 5 day period is classic. 
1BF69501-37A3-4C1F-BF25-009EFE057CA9.thumb.png.219050050452742d00ace8c062e2e0df.png
3021E5F5-83C5-48B6-A507-5ADA3EF4EFC3.thumb.png.3f90d2f448be3697e3092b0fd31d08f7.png

@Ji We cannot waste this.  This isn’t a pattern we’re going to get that often.  I honestly dunno what it will take if this doesn’t work!
 

cant have a storm on the 31st...have a guitar gig 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Three waves each with successively more upside.  I have been keying on the 28-30th as the time period that made most sense as everything retrogrades and the ridge should pull west enough to get east coast amplification and cold (whatever there is) to time to.  But the eps are split between the wave around the 28/29 and one around the 30/31.  The 30/31 might have the best chance to turn the corner amplify up the coast. The h5 look through that 5 day period is classic

SWEET !

IF this doesn't produce a SECS I am going off the grid.  

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17 minutes ago, frd said:

SWEET !

IF this doesn't produce a SECS I am going off the grid.  

This has to lol.  If we waste this next 2 weeks I’m probably taking a break from long range for a while. What’s the point of tracking a pattern if we can get one that looks like someone gave me the magic atmosphere crayon and let me draw it up myself and it still does us no good?  That’s when it’s time to step away for a while. 
 

ETA: this feels like we’re playing cards and just realized the opponent already pulled all the face cards out of the deck. 

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EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 7 runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3

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12 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Are you saying @Ji might wake up one morning and find a guitar head under the sheets?? :lol:

Not quite my style...

4 minutes ago, rclab said:

Nah, he’ll get to his gig only to find out that the frets have been removed. As always .....

But THIS is!!! :lol: Musical mayhem would be my specialty! That would really give him something to fret about *ba-dum pssh*

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58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This has to lol.  If we waste this next 2 weeks I’m probably taking a break from long range for a while. What’s the point of tracking a pattern if we can get one that looks like someone gave me the magic atmosphere crayon and let me draw it up myself and it still does us no good?  That’s when it’s time to step away for a while. 
 

ETA: this feels like we’re playing cards and just realized the opponent already pulled all the face cards out of the deck. 

It seems like you are saying this pattern cannot get much better. Like what is the upside? I would assume a  Jan 16' type storm is possible in this pattern if it really is the best possible pattern we can get that would only come once a decade.

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30 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn, GFS has the next storm, but looks to slide south

GFS can't even get a handle on Mon-Tues. Im not sure I put much stock in what it shows 180hrs+ out. However if you loop the last 3 runs valid 6z Thurs Jan 28 you can see it keeps moving N with the slp and precip shield. Soooo yeah.

Eta: crap didn't see the other post showing the same.....

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2 hours ago, SnowLover22 said:

It seems like you are saying this pattern cannot get much better. Like what is the upside? I would assume a  Jan 16' type storm is possible in this pattern if it really is the best possible pattern we can get that would only come once a decade.

There are background base state truths we need to remember. It’s a Nina. Almost all those HECS storms were in Ninos. And we’re in the middle of an epic run of torch.  So given those factors do I expect some 2010 type snow blitz no. But this longwave pattern is about as good as we can get to just snow given and despite those hostile realities we must contend with. 

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