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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looking ahead, not a bad look here. Decent injection of cold into our source region between the WPO-ish ridge and the TPV. Enough of a trough near AK keeping the sprawling Pac ridge in check, neutral PNA, and still a decent NAO look, although displaced southwestward.. W US trough progressing eastward.

1612396800-iaHzGp75q4U.png

6z GEFS has a similar look at hr 360. 

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41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Decent injection of cold into our source region between the WPO-ish ridge and the TPV.

 

It is working compared to the crap three weeks ago. Imagine the chill deepen a bit as well over Southern Canada moving forward. . 

 

tenday.gif

 

 

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Temps are not an issue with this one. Hopefully it gets some support... I'm not confident with the crazy variation on solutions we've seen for mon/tues next week, even inside 200 hours.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

 

12 op GFS had a faster/flatter wave exit SE of hatteras around the same time. op CMC also has a wave moving east but it looks way less organized.

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1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

Temps are not an issue with this one. Hopefully it gets some support... I'm not confident with the crazy variation on solutions we've seen for mon/tues next week, even inside 200 hours.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

 

12 op GFS had a faster/flatter wave exit SE of hatteras around the same time. op CMC also has a wave moving east but it looks way less organized.

Of course it's an op run 200+ hrs away (and not worth parsing details at this range) but I'd note that, at the very least...unlike the storm before it,.you actually have the fully frozen result you'd expect to have with a high over top right there...so at least that's something, lol

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji seats are gonna fill up fast 

F8CCD4C4-3B8F-4BE7-B81C-FA932205118B.thumb.png.27e6d91edc7a2344efcea98e6645148c.png
that captures two waves technically because the eps members can’t decide between the 28/29 or the 30/31 wrt which wave will be the one to amplify.  

Exceptionally good look considering 276 hours out.  All aboard ! 

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