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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The 6z para at least leaves the door open to chances. I also thought the 6z regular gfs looked better.

I think @leesburg 04 is on to something. I already know he’s on something. By tomorrow morning I think we will have a much clearer picture of what’s coming.

not a dig at you, but I feel like this has been said for weeks and we've got nothing to show for it. My patience for lack of snow is starting to show... 

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15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The 6z para at least leaves the door open to chances. I also thought the 6z regular gfs looked better.

I think @leesburg 04 is on to something. I already know he’s on something. By tomorrow morning I think we will have a much clearer picture of what’s coming.

I've made it this far in life with a 4% success rate...buyer beware

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

have you? i thought that was in reference to something else tbh

Nope it's specifically about the models starting to show storms. It was based on an HM tweet late December saying after the ssw it usually takes 20-30 days to see cold....clearly a flawed interpretation but I ran with it.

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Nope it's specially about the models starting to show storms. It was based on an HM tweet late December saying after the ssw it usually takes 20-30 days to see cold....clearly a flawed interpretation but I ran with it.

gonna start calling you Nostradamus 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And I was only piggy backing on what he’d been saying in my usual, sarcastic, lovable manner :lol:

dont ever change, friend.

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

I'm certain tomorrow's models will show mid 60s and a SER all the way up to Montreal

probs

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Nope it's specially about the models starting to show storms. It was based on an HM tweet late December saying after the ssw it usually takes 20-30 days to see cold....clearly a flawed interpretation but I ran with it.

No one is perfect, however, I do believe solely from a SSWE association there have been areas of unusual cold and snow far South in the latitudes within the Northern Hemisphere . 

There were a few recent examples the last ten days.  

 

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28 minutes ago, MocoMike said:

6z GEFS looks south when comparing to 0z for 26/27th

image.thumb.png.355bf6506056466ea6738745789df49c.png
 

image.thumb.png.fd46697b5a39e084ce9f47b954d98cce.png

Not really South.  First wave is just faster and you are seeing more members on the means reflecting a second wave to the South. The first wave is already way out the Atlantic on the 6z.

Eta: that actually subtly hints at one of the possibilities PSU noted where it snows for like 30 straight hours somewhere as wave 2 is right on the heels of wave 1. 

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Still in the game although the start of any fun is delayed until next Tuesday or so. 

 

EPS members 360 hour snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 4 runs (College Park)

90th percentile: 9 15 12 15

80th percentile: 6 10 11 9

70th percentile: 6 6 9 8

60th percentile: 4 5 8 6

50th percentile: 3 4 6 5

40th percentile: 2 3 4 4

30th percentile: 2 1 4 3

20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2

10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 11

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