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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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No model on it’s own is a good bet. But just for reference the CMC has been killing the GFS in verification since its upgrade last year. 
To me the gas has been the best model because it's been the stingiest with snow. The European which runs 2x a day has given us way more blue than gfs which runs 4x

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Just now, Ji said:

It was never supposed to be a good winter because we weren't suppose to have a southern stream...-ao...-nao...pretty much all winter. So it's underperforming for the wrong seasons

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Ok you want to find excuses to be miserable or just exhale a sigh of relief if we finally get a flush hit and be happy?  Btw you’re totally right. But we can’t ignore the really dreadfully awful pacific base state either. And we did (you and I) get a decent snow wrt out respective climo in Dec.  If we get a couple more snows by the end of winter maybe that’s as good as we can expect given it’s a Nina in a really awful pac base state. 

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No model on it’s own is a good bet. But just for reference the CMC has been killing the GFS in verification since its upgrade last year. 
It was eye opening today when models spit out a hecs in myrle Beach. Crazy stuff like that tells me we can still win in this pattern

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9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I keep seeing that.  But be honest...in crunch time, which would you trust.

I would never trust any one model if it’s on an island. I don’t consider this to be that. The cmc progression has support from the EPS. Maybe the 974 bomb is overdone but the general progression isn’t without support.  But if I could only look at the gfs and cmc and had to judge based on that alone honestly CMC right now. It’s been better. Neither is perfect.  CMC was way better then the GFS with the Dec storm. It caught the north shift a lot sooner. It also had that crazy trowel deform that gave some places 40” from like 4 days out. That’s impressive.  

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9 minutes ago, Ji said:

To me the gas has been the best model because it's been the stingiest with snow. The European which runs 2x a day has given us way more blue than gfs which runs 4x

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You mean other then when it kept giving us 2 feet of snow long after every other model shifted north in December ?

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Next week has very good potential. And I still think the best window for something to amplify along the east coast is around the 28/29.  But the tight spacing with all these waves makes this complicated and will wreak havoc with the guidance run to run.  This isn’t a simple blocking setup with one juiced up stj wave slowly sliding across in a split flow. This involves several waves and how they interact. The first thing to root for us a weaker lead NS wave. The more that amps the more complicated the next wave becomes. If that NS wave gets out of the way the nest case scenario would be the next 2 waves both hit and without much separation between the two it could snow for most of 3 days from that solution. 

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The gefs is a shotgun of everything.  They don’t support the op really but neither do they support any one solution.  I count 11 members with a weak lead wave and stronger second wave like the euro. Some miss south. Some nice hits. A couple north. Then some have a stringer lead wave but are colder and snow with that wave.  There are some members like the op too. For the 3rd wave that the cmc bombs they have that wave but are all over. Some hits. Some cutters. Largest camp with that is suppressed just south of us. The gefs is obviously not able to handle all the interaction between waves. They are a mess of every possible outcome. 

ETA: through day 11 a definite improvement though wrt number of hits and mean snowfall over 18z and 12z. 

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

240 has 1005mb SLP in KY... h5 low close behind... bagginess in SLP isobars though down towards N GA?

Yeah, either a slider OR by the looks of it might try and go neg and turn the corner. Crapshoot on an ops at that range. Plenty of tracking and potential with ample cold air around....thats my takeaway.

Eta: there is another sw diving due S from the N GL trying to interact under the blocking as well. Loads of potential!

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Day 10 threat on the Euro. I swear, this hobby is like fishing without hooks or doing models without rubber cement and hoping they hold together.  

Lol

Well at least both Euro and CMC tonight have a 1040mb+ HP in the right location... let's see how long that lasts 

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14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Is that 2nd wave the former 3rd wave or just a slower 2nd? So many waves.

The OP delays the 12z EPS big dog look to day 10+, and wave #1 could be a medium dog if trends a little south.

* not sure what happened to the little dog it may have been eaten by the big dog

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Day 10 threat on the Euro. I swear, this hobby is like fishing without hooks or doing models without rubber cement and hoping they hold together.  

it’s the same wave though the cmc bombs and we’ve been tracking for the 28/29  but the euro is slower with it so it’s a day later then on the cmc.  But that’s not the same as kicking the can to the “next” storm.  Same storm just slower to progression this run.
 

 I am a little disappointed it tracks the system on the 26th north of us but it wasn’t that far north that it might not adjust back.  

 

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