Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Still funny when they hit it on the nose, though, date and all (like I said, they hit last month on the nose...both Almanacs had the storm)...must be some formula they use. Doesn't seem like they're just shooting in the dark...to my eyes it seems to be a certain non-zero percentage they get something right, lol

Of course it’s non zero. If I made a random prediction for every day of the year I would hit several times by random chance also. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You think they do it randomly?

I have no idea.  I’m just saying objective studies of it’s accuracy shows it has no validity.  Their seasonal forecasts have a slightly better track record and show some skill above just random chance. But their day to day forecasts do not. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You think they do it randomly?

This should probably move to banter, but I feel obligated to respond as I'm studying data science. :grad:

The most often-cited resource on this is:  Walsh, John E.; David Allen (October 1981). "Testing the Farmer's Almanac". Weatherwise.

The findings of the above study (University of Illinois) were that monthly precipitation and temperature forecasts were 52% and 51% accurate over a 5-year study period, respectively. Given an anticipated random accuracy of 50%, this suggests that their method (if any) does not significantly increase the forecast accuracy above simple guessing. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB’ s JB not bullish on upcoming pattern as WPO and EPO go positive and MJO goes into phase 7.  Will say unfortunately the WB outlook has been spot on this winter with cooler December and warm January.

Is "WB's JB" =  Joe Bastardi? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB’ s JB not bullish on upcoming pattern as WPO and EPO go positive and MJO goes into phase 7.  Will say unfortunately the WB outlook has been spot on this winter with cooler December and warm January.

Where was December cold? January is above normal here but mainly due to overnight lows. Both months have been pretty much the same with Jan running about 2 degrees cooler than December 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB’ s JB not bullish on upcoming pattern as WPO and EPO go positive and MJO goes into phase 7.  Will say unfortunately the WB outlook has been spot on this winter with cooler December and warm January.

 

 

 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB’ s JB not bullish on upcoming pattern as WPO and EPO go positive and MJO goes into phase 7.  Will say unfortunately the WB outlook has been spot on this winter with cooler December and warm January.

I stopped watching his videos regularly years ago but yesterday I threw one on out of curiosity and he outlined the same progression I laid out a few days ago.  It honestly made me feel less confident in my prediction. 

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB’ s JB not bullish on upcoming pattern as WPO and EPO go positive and MJO goes into phase 7.  Will say unfortunately the WB outlook has been spot on this winter with cooler December and warm January.

And I’m not sure what this is in reference too but I’ve seen his tweets shared on my Twitter feed comparing the pattern to 2010 several times and I think I remember a comment where he said he would be shocked if DC to Boston wasnt above normal snow by Mid Feb do not sure how not bullish that is lol. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

This hand is being over played  imo. The epo ridge is going up for about 6 days (instead of 10) but the extended days were at like day 13-16.  That’s not reliable range. The models did get the epo ridge going up correct just had it linger too long. But frankly an extended epo ridge is unlikely in a Nina with a strong Pac jet. The play was always to get some cold into the pattern then hope we do better with a colder base state to start with a blocking pattern. Anyone expecting weeks of a epo NAO ridge bridge was crazy.  If we get a week of epo ridge to inject true cold into N America then an eastern trough after and it’s still not cold enough I don’t want to hear anymore crap about the pattern. How many things do we expect to go right AND to stay lined up for THAT long. It doesn’t work that way. If we need 15 things to all be perfect AND to stay that way for weeks and weeks...well don’t hold your breath. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

 

I don;t have access to any EPO forecasts.  So what's the current state?  In PSU's recent progression e-mails he has mentioned an upcoming -EPO event which will unfortunately dump into the west.  Is that not happening now?

And as much as these guys annoy me, they have been correct the last several years about several advertised -EPO periods that never materialized (but man they seem to make a special effort to do so as pompously and arrogantly as possible). 

ETA: I see my question was answered before I even asked it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Where was December cold? January is above normal here but mainly due to overnight lows. Both months have been pretty much the same with Jan running about 2 degrees cooler than December 

December was just plain average here in most of NC.  But that's actually a huge win compared to the last five years and also how things were looking in many of the seasonal forecasts in the fall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...