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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Para and GFS.. Ratios are pretty close to 10-1.. Time to sit back and wait now..
 
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Yeah, this is a lock for Ksyr on N/E from there so it just adds to the glacier that we've been forming. I've had solid cover since the first LES band that mainly affected me and CNY, lol, so it's been a while since I've seen any pavement or driveway around the crib!!

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Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Yeah, this is a lock for Ksyr on N/E from there so it just adds to the glacier that we've been forming. I've had solid cover since the first LES band that mainly affected me and CNY, lol, so it's been a while since I've seen any pavement or driveway around the crib!!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Excellent duration of snowpack here this winter, will continue after this as well. Good chance of subzero nights coming up as well.

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A weak sfc low over the Upper Ohio Valley late tonight will then
track across our forecast area on Tuesday. While this will guarantee
that our region will experience wintry precipitation...there is
still some uncertainty as to how far north the mixed pcpn will get.
At this juncture...a wintry mix is anticipated for the Southern Tier
and Finger Lakes region late tonight into Tuesday with snow and
sleet accumulations forecast to be in the vcnty of 1-2 inches.
Meanwhile sites further north should pick up mainly wet snow to the
tue of 3-5 inches.

Given the more northerly track of the system and after collaboration
with adjacent offices...have expanded the area for the winter wx
advisory for the remaining counties (Ern Lake Ontario region)

Tuesday night...colder air in the wake of the exiting sfc low will
enable any residual mixed pcpn to change back to just snow. Snow
amounts expected Tues night will range from an inch or so over the
western counties to as much as three more inches east of Lake
Ontario.
-- End Changed Discussion
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Here is the advisory..

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
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...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and mixed precipitation expected.

* WHERE...Southern Cayuga, Onondaga, Cortland, Chenango,
  Delaware and Sullivan counties.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Tuesday to 5 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A band of steady light snow will lift
  across the region Tuesday morning, and will stall out along or
  just north of the New York State Thruway in the early afternoon.
  Further to south, snow will mix with or change to freezing rain
  or freezing drizzle, with precipitation becoming spotty in
  coverage. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches will be
  common, with 3 to 5 inches north of the Thruway and in a few
  spots in the Catskills. Ice accumulations will generally be
  around one tenth of an inch, with localized areas of up to a
  quarter of an inch.


 

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...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 10 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches,
  with locally higher amounts of up to 8 inches possible across
  portions of the Mohawk Valley and southern Adirondacks.

* WHERE...Southern Vermont, the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region,
  Lake George Saratoga region, central and northern Taconics, and
  southern Adirondacks of eastern New York, and western
  Massachusetts.

* WHEN...From noon Tuesday to 10 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions and reduced
  visibilities. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the
  Tuesday evening, and Wednesday morning commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates could briefly reach one inch
  per hour Tuesday afternoon.

 

Seems reasonable. 

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44 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

And yet they’ll write 8 paragraphs on a SE LES event followed by “STAY TUNED!”

It gets annoying. Lol

Well 3-6" of snow over 24 hours isn't going to really impact travel around here, that is run of the mill type stuff. Lake effect you can get 3-6" in one hour and severely impacts all travel. Pretty big difference IMO. They talk about it more because it has more of an impact. KBUF I don't think has ever shut down from a synoptic event, only lake effect.

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Just now, rochesterdave said:

Plus, Tim is talking about next weeks event which could be much bigger. Not to mention, BUF is only 1/100 of the geographical area and maybe 1/3 of the population of their coverage. And Rochester HAS been shut down by synoptic several times. 

Too much uncertainty next week to give it much thought. Tomorrows system is 3-5", not much to talk about really. What do you want them to say?

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