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So, next week the GFS is back to a whiff for us. It's either a cutter or it's south. This pattern just doesn't work for us.

We need a solid noreaster that digs and works it's way north along the coast. These lows cutting up through the Midwest hit this triangle that either shoots them far left or far right.

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Just now, TugHillMatt said:

So, next week the GFS is back to a whiff for us. It's either a cutter or it's south. This pattern just doesn't work for us.

We need a solid noreaster that digs and works it's way north along the coast. These lows cutting up through the Midwest hit this triangle that either shoots them far left or far right.

Its pretty close though tug. Not the cutter you were posting the other day, closer to Gefs

image.thumb.png.8da339803c7411e56c3860dc1c506e33.png

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21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Its pretty close though tug. Not the cutter you were posting the other day, closer to Gefs

image.thumb.png.8da339803c7411e56c3860dc1c506e33.png

Agree.  This has every shot to come north.  We need to see some stability in the solutions which wont happen until day 5 earliest.  Lets see if this gets support from the euro in the next couple of days and go from there.  Encouraging look as far as i am concerned.

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20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Its pretty close though tug. Not the cutter you were posting the other day, closer to Gefs

image.thumb.png.8da339803c7411e56c3860dc1c506e33.png

I know we’re still in the range where we shouldn’t be taking this model as gospel but it still amazes me that it goes from a cutter over Green Bay to a surpressed low over Wheeling, WV in basically one run. Where will it be tomorrow, probably over Atlanta. Or maybe it will disappear, lol. 

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Northern Erie added to the warning... Transition Zone special for Lackawanna, South Buffalo, West Seneca!

 

Northern Erie-
Including the city of Buffalo
128 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake
  snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie county. The greatest snow amounts in
  northern portions of Erie county will occur from Lackawanna and
  Blasdell to West Seneca, Elma and Marilla and points southward.
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Warning issued for Oswego county as well..

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows. The most
  persistent and heaviest snow will occur on the Tug Hill Plateau
  Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

StormTotalSnowWeb1 (8).png

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18 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Warning issued for Oswego county as well..


LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM
EST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows. The most
  persistent and heaviest snow will occur on the Tug Hill Plateau
  Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.

* WHERE...Oswego county.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

StormTotalSnowWeb1 (8).png

If that lines up the cutoff would be about 2 miles south of my house...yeah that’s about right..

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2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Northern Erie added to the warning... Transition Zone special for Lackawanna, South Buffalo, West Seneca!

 


Northern Erie-
Including the city of Buffalo
128 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake
  snows.

* WHERE...Northern Erie county. The greatest snow amounts in
  northern portions of Erie county will occur from Lackawanna and
  Blasdell to West Seneca, Elma and Marilla and points southward.

I still don’t see what they see

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1 hour ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

About 10” of new snow in Sardinia (far southern Erie County). Nothing fell during my hike (9-1), little over 12” OTG there. 
 

We had maybe 0.5” last night IMBY, enough to whiten things up until the temp climbed over freezing again and now back to all green.

Went to knox farm in EA and they had about 3-4" there. Was snowing the entire time, such a beautiful walk. My dogs favorite place in all of Buffalo is that dog park.

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