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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

That is the problem with getting hopes up on a few operational runs. It’s day 5/6 and models are only simulating what could happen with pieces of energy that may not even be over the CONUS yet. Any one of these pieces initializes off it can make things very uncertain. 

The problem is everybody is so snow hungry from the past 2 winters that they are fiending for snowmaggedon. 
 

when you’re not hitting the ball, sometimes you need to bunt to get on base. I would be ecstatic to see an easy 4-8” over some complex mess that ends up giving Binghamton another 30”

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Just now, jayyy said:

The problem is everybody is so snow hungry from the past 2 winters that they are fiending for snowmaggedon. 
 

when you’re not hitting the ball, sometimes you need to bunt to get on base. I would be ecstatic to see an easy 4-8” over some complex mess that ends up giving Binghamton another 30”

To each his own. 

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If the euro didn’t show 30-40”, we’d be ecstatic to see most models showing a solid storm 120 hours out. A bit of a shift in the ridge out west, or the confluence to our NE, or a slight change in how strung out the look is at h5 is the difference between 5” and 12+ area wide. 
 

Certainly not a time to be panicking.  

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

If the euro didn’t show 30-40”, we’d be ecstatic to see most models showing a solid storm 120 hours out. A bit of a shift in the ridge out west, or the confluence to our NE, or a slight change in how strung out the look is at h5 is the difference between 5” and 12+ area wide. 
 

Certainly not a time to be panicking.  

FWIW ridging seemed better this run. Onto the EPS, hoping those provide some clarity. 

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The run wasn't the 12z run but it wasn't that far from being a monster hit. At Day 5/6, just having the 5H potential is pretty solid. Don't get sold on one or two operational runs. Use them as ensembles for potential. We likely saw the max potential for this storm on the 12z ECMWF. This isn't bad for part of the sub-forum. HECS would be cool, but they are so low probability. MECS is certainly at play with the type of energy being depicted on guidance. Negatively tilted troughs near my hood, moving eastward are pretty good to see at inside 72 hr leads. From there, lots of variables at play. If you think models have a handle on this in full, then you haven't been looking at east coast weather long enough. Get some sleep y'all. A potentially long weekend ahead full of highs/lows, head fakes, disappointments, and potential jubilation. 

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

The run wasn't the 12z run but it wasn't that far from being a monster hit. At Day 5/6, just having the 5H potential is pretty solid. Don't get sold on one or two operational runs. Use them as ensembles for potential. We likely saw the max potential for this storm on the 12z ECMWF. This isn't bad for part of the sub-forum. HECS would be cool, but they are so low probability. MECS is certainly at play with the type of energy being depicted on guidance. Negatively tilted troughs near my hood, moving eastward are pretty good to see at inside 72 hr leads. From there, lots of variables at play. If you think models have a handle on this in full, then you haven't been looking at east coast weather long enough. Get some sleep y'all. A potentially long weekend ahead full of highs/lows, head fakes, disappointments, and potential jubilation. 

The voice of reason has arrived. Good to see you on here! MAF had more SN than 3 years at IAD

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43 minutes ago, Ji said:

Psu ..is this concerning?
Ooz tonight vs last night 60ba81cb54a10e02377b4195ecbe9e49.gif

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

I was worried about that trend BEFORE this run but no one wanted to listen because the run showed 40”. I said yea but now we are one more adjustment exactly like the last 3 runs from a suppressed solution but everyone was sure the south trend would magically stop now that they were in the bullseye.  Look maybe this was a bad run. EPS not out yet. Maybe euro over corrected. Maybe this time we get a compromise. It’s not 100%. But that h5 low was shifting south consistently too much every run for me to be comfortable given the seasonal trend for storms that were cutters day 8 to end up suppressed waves that can’t even get much precip to us. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was worried about that trend BEFORE this run but no one wanted to listen because the run showed 40”. I said yea but now we are one more adjustment exactly like the last 3 runs from a suppressed solution but everyone was sure the south trend would magically stop now that they were in the bullseye.  Look maybe this was a bad run. EPS not out yet. Maybe euro over corrected. Maybe this time we get a compromise. It’s not 100%. But that h5 low was shifting south consistently too much every run for me to be comfortable given the seasonal trend for storms that were cutters day 8 to end up suppressed waves that can’t even get much precip to us. 

 

 

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

The EPS looks pretty similar to 12z, if not a tiny bit North. Certainly not a step back. I'd imagine that ensembles are pretty decent at this range. 

EPS certainly looks good to me. Seen way worse at these leads. I'd be encouraged and anyone from PA to NC should be paying close attention to this sucker. 

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Btw we don’t want the ridge out west pumping more. It’s too Far East and positively tilted. The more that pumps the more pressure to dig the trough into the southeast it exerts. We don’t want that.  There is too much blocking for that. We want the h5 to track ESE across VA not dive SE into NC!   We have a beautiful wave that is blocked from lifting we don’t want it to dig and get squashed in the flow. We want it to slide more east and develop the low off the mid Atlantic not the southeast. 

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Just now, Cobalt said:

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-snow_96hr_inch-2353600.thumb.png.e9ab17dab1b6c038788a7a7d5bfd98b3.png

This is actually NW of 12z lol

321374476_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-precip_72hr_inch-2332000(3).thumb.png.ad75e029ce0d539c72617a50eb8ffcf4.png

Control is still a bomb too. Weird that the EPS went up pretty well compared to it's Op brother. 

It's a great run. Lost a few BECS solutions (hence snow mean technically going slightly down) but there is literally a single member that blanks us -- DCA being us. Every single other member is 2"+

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's a great run. Lost a few BECS solutions (hence snow mean technically going slightly down) but there is literally a single member that blanks us -- DCA being us. Every single other member is 2"+

Mhm, the preicp mean for the costal aspect is improved too. In fact part of it might be because a cluster of means are decently NW during this time (disagrees with Euro), in fact 850s are borderline for part of that, but that's probably the least of our worries atm

1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

@Cobaltmind sharing the control? Curious to compare with OP. 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-ma-total_snow_10to1-2353600.thumb.png.f3fd15106d6672840f18da2f6153de2f.png

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