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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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Just now, stormtracker said:

Confluence is better, but nothing like Euro.  Just gotta hope the GFS is doing what it did last time...underdoing it and strengthened as we get closer

gfs is going to stubborn its way into the euro(hopefully). It may take a few more runs that we would like

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

gfs is going to stubborn its way into the euro(hopefully). It may take a few more runs that we would like

JI I really believe GFS comes around to the other models, namely the Euro. Each run the confluence gets just a tick better and better. Heavy snows breaking out down my way at 108/114 headed your way.

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

JI I really believe GFS comes around to the other models, namely the Euro. Each run the confluence gets just a tick better and better. Heavy snows breaking out down my way at 108/114 headed your way.

It's moving toward that point.  At least it didn't get any worse.

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Just now, Cobalt said:

GFS has 4-6" from the WAA alone, with more to the North of us as the costal gets cranking. Def a step in the right direction, this feels like Saturday's trends for the Thursday event where the GFS slowly sank SE but we had that glimmer of hope

Last 3 GFS runs the system has sank south .  A couple more ticks and we will be In the coastal once it gets cranking.

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Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

I feel like the GFS chased the convection off of the NC coast on this run. You would think the low transfer would happen closer to the benchmark based off H5. Euro depiction makes more sense at the moment. A lot of time here for this to resolve itself. 

Yep, just wanted to see the slow evolution in the right direction. It’s starting to follow the King

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

I feel like the GFS chased the convection off of the NC coast on this run. You would think the low transfer would happen closer to the benchmark based off H5. Euro depiction makes more sense at the moment. A lot of time here for this to resolve itself. 

I really want to believe that a run that shows 24” in mby makes more sense than a run that shows 3-6.  

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