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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

Trip booked in to D.C. Sunday afternoon 

Just a suggestion, don't yell at messenger. If work related, come back forum on Thursday/Friday, as you seem to be following along as well. Then start making decision then to cancel, once at DC with this event you maybe stuck here for a day/two possibly.

If not for work related, not worth coming to DC when everything is still pretty much either fenced up or boarded up. Plus all federal properties, double mask mandated.

 

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4 minutes ago, yohan said:

Just a suggestion, don't yell at messenger. If work related, come back forum on Thursday/Friday, as you seem to be following along as well. Then start making decision then to cancel, once at DC with this event you maybe stuck here for a day/two possibly.

If not for work related, not worth coming to DC when everything is still pretty much either fenced up or boarded up. Plus all federal properties, double mask mandated.

 

He’s said he’s staying with his bro in Manassas. If he wanted to come party why are we pooping on it.

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Through 120 ICON already has us with 7 hours of snow. Primary is in KY and starting to transfer off the coast. Would love to see the next 12 hours. 

Yea that's a big thing to watch. We want the primary up into Kentucky, then die off and quickly transfer energy to the coast.

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Just now, chris21 said:

He’s said he’s staying with his bro in Manassas. If he wanted to come party why are we pooping on it.

My apologies, he said DC, did not know that he would stay in Manassas. I was just stating that in DC, the fence's and other stuff are still up from inauguration.

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2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I used to use it a lot.  This is a special occasion.  I'll allow it.

what did I miss?

 

@Ji that’s the toll that must be paid. To get a big amplification we need the blocking to relax but that means the wave isn’t going to get trapped as a 50/50 and the next wave is likely a cutter. If we’re lucky we get enough CAD to avoid a total washout.   Maybe if it comes out in weaker pieces... The blocking looks to reload pretty quickly after. 

1 hour ago, Ji said:

how do we get this to trend south

ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

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43 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

You just noticed this trend this winter only? In all seriousness that is how the models generally work every year. Outlandish solutions possible at long leads, slowly figuring out the details as we get closer and then fine tuning closer in. That's not a unique thing to this year. 

Or for this forum. 

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if you aren't paywalled, this CWG article has some model outputs from 90+ hours out. there was agreement. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/20/how-much-snow-are-local-forecasters-and-computer-models-predicting/
Copy the link and paste it into incognito mode on Android. It works without payment

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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