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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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@Ralph Wiggum dug this up...that gfs track and intensity was pretty identical to a previous storm with similar strong blocking. This doesn’t have the same upside because it’s moving faster and doesn’t have the same stj juice but this gives an idea of what the precip representation for a storm of that amplitude and that track should look like.  

5E674E06-85A0-435E-97DE-769FFE3FB0EA.gif.f138a48c85e91254c0d329578698f69c.gif
9DAB9589-026A-4D6F-B1C7-7440003A502F.jpeg.1f7884b523dc2e82a738b07150abdbfd.jpeg
4EF4D8A6-0DEB-433B-BFC2-1948EA55331F.gif.656817089a98631678e49b99eb5f17b0.gif

7F7F4A4D-80AC-4B90-B653-2783E9B5F829.jpeg.df978b60639f625c7cdb8bca2b089b36.jpeg

 

Some differences. The primary was a little stronger to the west initially and after that point above the Feb 2010 storm gained SLIGHTY more latitude but by then it was occluding and the precip was sinking southeast anyways. I would obviously scale back the qpf a lot here and I would shift the northern fringe south maybe 20 miles. But just saying if that gfs track and intensity was correct the results into southern PA would be a lot better. But there would be a brick wall somewhere not far north of Philly. 


 

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27 minutes ago, Ji said:

how do we get the upper level low to slow/close just to our west?

Yes,  And it will slow down through the middle of the country it always does inside 72hrs, Of course the confluence can still shove it out to sea if it doesn't lift out somewhat

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