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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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Well that was a fun read, I suspected when I saw all of the pages that something positive happened. It's good to see at least some snow on the models so we have a fighting chance with several days to go vs. sitting here day after day looking for strawberries in a manure pile...I'll take that and ride this out. Hopefully Monday delivers something fun and then this event can make dreams come true hopefully not wet ones though. :hurrbear:

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Well that was a fun read, I suspected when I saw all of the pages that something positive happened. It's good to see at least some snow on the models so we have a fighting chance with several days to go vs. sitting here day after day looking for strawberries in a manure pile. I'll take that and ride this out. Hopefully Monday delivers something fun and then this event can make dreams come true hopefully not wet ones though. :hurrbear:

White ones better than wet ones? :ph34r:

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This is only a 6 hour panel, so more snow to come esp for eastern areas on the ones that are wet. The thing to note is on many members, like the op, it is warmish and wet at the start of the event. As usual, not a lot of cold air around. The low needs to be amped and take a damn near perfect track for this to work, esp for the lowlands.  Very few southern tracks in the mix.

1611867600-nXwHD21tDy8.png

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NC mets giving legit sounding reasons this thing will still go south while our group is giving legit sounding reasons this will still go a little north maybe meanwhile South Carolina mets are saying what happened to my historic snowstorm. Buckle up kiddies we are about to get on the rollercoaster of joy and despair. My guess a few of you won't make it....my condolences to your pets.

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24 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yes euro didn’t spit out a foot of snow but I don’t think it was as bad as the reaction. It just needed to be a bit more amped and the solution would have been better. That’s not a huge adjustment to make in the MR. 

It was close. Looking at h5, there are some subtle differences between the Euro and GFS. The biggest one may be the spacing between the developing shortwave and the big NA vortex. A bit more on the GFS, and so it is able to develop more ridging out in front. 

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