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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok let me clarify what I meant above before I start a panic....this run of the GFS does not bother me because its the GFS and its all over the place at this range.  But...the way it suppressed the storm on THIS run was a more realistic scenario.  What I saw on the last few runs didn't bother me at all because it was suppressing the storm for the wrong reasons.  So...as long as none of the other guidance trends to a weak pathetic flat wave ejecting out west tonight...we are fine.  But if we start to see across guidance a trend weaker with the upper level low coming across that is BAD because that is what is driving this storm.  There has to be an amplifying upper level low to our west to pump ridging for this scenario to work.   The trough axis is off the east coast and the flow is NW to SE...this isnt a type of setup where a surface low is going to amplify up the coast along the baroclinic boundary.  This only works if we have a strong upper level center to our west pumping heights into the confluence to our NE creating a strong inverted trough for a low to amplify along.  That won't work if the upper low is weak.  

But I still don't get how this squares with the concern of us not being cold enough...How, in the disaster scenario you mentioned, would it be cold enough to snow down south?

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But I still don't get how this squares with the concern of us not being cold enough...How, in the disaster scenario you mentioned, would it be cold enough to snow down south?

Dynamically driven...its actually raining on the northern fringe of precip on WV while its snowing in SC on the gfs run...but with incredibly heavy precip and crashing heights under the mid and upper level lows it creates just enough cold to get snow.  

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

4BA79CE4-4FFF-4FDC-B261-31348F1F7F0B.thumb.jpeg.15b0c2600951342e6c9664115b6bfd09.jpeg
10E9514D-FB52-47DA-9183-609137004FCF.jpeg.390965fb9fac3b29a5a8cb9472caba86.jpeg

That's actually pretty great agreement lol, I'd imagine that the 18z EPS looked juicier because it had more members subscribing to that idea, while the GEFS is straying from going away from it's op. In terms of an actual big hit in NC like what the op showed, I could only see one run that had an actual decent swath of snow and hit that far south. Far more had no storm at all compared to that, or a storm but it jackpotted us or Central VA, or a super weak storm that dotted snow into NC/VA. Getting near that hr 150 threshold too so hoping more members pick up on the storm. 

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

it was better then last run lol.  But really want to go crazy...the TPV lobe that was supposed to slide across in front of the monday wave and help suppress the flow over top of that wave...and keep it from cutting...slowed down sooo much that not only did it allow that Monday wave to get out in front of it and drive north but its still around and compressing the flow over the top of the storm later in the week.  LOL  

Block working the wrong way.

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