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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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This isn’t a setup like when we’ve missed South recently. The gfs doesn’t have a weak wave off Florida while the euro targets NC and we’re kidding ourselves about “north trend”. The cmc ensembles are targeting just north of us

83CFBE19-3D8C-4703-A0DA-CC0A0570D2C7.thumb.png.75dfce62c69cf67c1b8234138ca4cfb0.png

eps right over us

2B8D1D5A-DAC9-471D-823D-07E4811AF153.thumb.png.197afbd69e49ba70a19722cd7ef109fc.png

and gefs just south. 
D3D0E06D-85AD-432E-A85D-53F0E03C4463.thumb.png.0f89cd5a6785c2319286100cc5b1b906.png
but forget the clown maps look at the setup... 

B7E7CE2D-E8F4-45D0-8492-3CEA37911C7A.thumb.jpeg.f36c4935a7923ca453c5ed0a57f64d93.jpeg
this is the most suppressed gefs. But the pattern doesn’t support that.  That’s a healthy upper level disturbance (1) and look at where the 50/50 is. This isn’t a case where there is a vortex over or just north of Maine like most of those suppressed examples lately and we are  acting like maybe that will somehow relax. The 50/50 is well NE. If it wasn’t for the block so far SW this would likely be a rain problem with that 50/50 location. Look at the latitude of the upper low and the ridging ahead of it. Even on the gefs that doesn’t look suppressed to me. I would think anyone south of the red line is ok. I wouldn’t want to be north of there and the blue line is the “probably smoking cirrus” line. 

The 18z euro is even more bullish 

1F610DAB-0BCD-4926-8F06-7ABCE4A282B4.thumb.jpeg.67aea487f37c56a30abdc89ccf2f511d.jpeg
look at the ridging already in front...and that upper low is coming across at a pretty high latitude. There isn’t enough pna ridge to really dig that into the southeast like the last few.  I think the eps/geps has the right idea here. Frankly Imo the gefs itself doesn’t really support that much suppression.  

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57 minutes ago, mappy said:

Getting rain

My mud was getting dry

38 minutes ago, Ji said:

ticked

At least I can find Leesburg on a map

37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fringed

There’s never a south trend when it’s needed and too much north trend when we don’t

34 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Fcuked

Can I get a kiss?

25 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

stuck in the middle with you

I’m more a joker or a clown. 

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When you have a bombing low with a 1040 mb banana high overhead, watch out. 

gfs_mslpa_us_30.png

If you bring this low another 50 miles north, you open yourself up to very impressive winds. I mean look at this. That is a category 1 hurricane equivalent cyclone. This would mean blizzard conditions closer to the low verbatim. Also, what PSU basically said above, the GEFS's h5 presentation doesn't support suppression. Its OP run is further north, by a good 100 miles or so. I posted a couple pages back a five run trend north with the system on the GFS. The other models have also been showing this. I agree with PSU that this likely won't be some farce north trend like the last two systems. Expect wobbles to continue back and forth until they hone in on a general area of where the LP should go, by 12z Sunday or Monday. I aim to have no more than a 50-100 mile shift in the track between model runs by 12z Sunday.

DT said we won't really know fully until after the 25th storm passes, or maybe a little before then. From there we can sweat the details like thermal profile, mesoscale banding, etc.

gfs_mslp_wind_eus_30.png

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too weak... the wave was simply too weak and couldn't amplify at all.  Dampened as it came east.  We need a healthier wave to eject from that western trough then that.  Just the GFS but that run troubled me slightly more then the last few misses to the south because that was at least consistent with itself.  If the wave that ejects out west is that weak...it will go south.  The other runs were just doing stupid GFS stuff but the storm should have been further north.  This run did was it will do IF that wave is actually that weak.  

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Ok let me clarify what I meant above before I start a panic....this run of the GFS does not bother me because its the GFS and its all over the place at this range.  But...the way it suppressed the storm on THIS run was a more realistic scenario.  What I saw on the last few runs didn't bother me at all because it was suppressing the storm for the wrong reasons.  So...as long as none of the other guidance trends to a weak pathetic flat wave ejecting out west tonight...we are fine.  But if we start to see across guidance a trend weaker with the upper level low coming across that is BAD because that is what is driving this storm.  There has to be an amplifying upper level low to our west to pump ridging for this scenario to work.   The trough axis is off the east coast and the flow is NW to SE...this isnt a type of setup where a surface low is going to amplify up the coast along the baroclinic boundary.  This only works if we have a strong upper level center to our west pumping heights into the confluence to our NE creating a strong inverted trough for a low to amplify along.  That won't work if the upper low is weak.  

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:

GGEM is weak POS..id rather have no storm

it was better then last run lol.  But really want to go crazy...the TPV lobe that was supposed to slide across in front of the monday wave and help suppress the flow over top of that wave...and keep it from cutting...slowed down sooo much that not only did it allow that Monday wave to get out in front of it and drive north but its still around and compressing the flow over the top of the storm later in the week.  LOL  

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