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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


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Just now, nj2va said:

Typical response when in the bullseye on D7:  Wow, too bad we know it won't hold for 7 days.

Typical response when not in the bullseye on D7:  Wow, you know that's exactly how it'll play out.

The blatant pessimism helps me not be so surprised when we get fringed, blowtorched, and suppressed all at the same time. 

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21 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Typical response when in the bullseye on D7:  Wow, too bad we know it won't hold for 7 days.

Typical response when not in the bullseye on D7:  Wow, you know that's exactly how it'll play out.

Yeah I don't get it...Somehow the snow weenie brain of some translates a slightly unfavorable D7 model run into reality and and favorable one into fantasy...where in reality neither is true because, well....the reality, whichever it is, hasn't happened yet!!!

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On a serious note with the 50/50 location and the ridge being in an iffy spot want this shortwave to have as much latitude as possible as it tracks east. This way even if it bombs on the coast and heads east quickly it would be able to throw back moisture. What’s also allowed this to come nw a bit is that tpv in Canada shifting NW. The euro and gfs did this today, but cmc kept it too Far East. This one has good potential though. Well see

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

Gefs with stronger hp for day 7  and stronger ssw . 2 for 2 .let's do it.

Pretty strong signal for a 1040+ HP stationed in the right spot. You want it to be a little west of our longitude so the cold air comes directly from the north instead of the NE. The GEFS though is about 100 miles or so south of the OP.

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I guess a step back from 12z, but still a good signal

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ma-snow_96hr_inch-2072800.thumb.png.c1b79921901b1de769a127c515424116.png

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t worry it will adjust north. 

I was actually thinking about your rule about where we want a storm for it to adjust north last minute. Seems like even the suppressed GFS is in a decent spot for us. Shades of those few Euro runs for Jan 2016 where it completely jackpotted Richmond. 

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1 minute ago, Rhino16 said:

Better not! You knew I’d reply to this. It better dang not. :weenie: (for good measure)

It’s like a game... I don’t want to be left out, but I don’t want anyone else left out either.

I’d like Ji left out just because his melt down would be legendary! 

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20 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I’d like Ji left out just because his melt down would be legendary! 

I might be farther south than Ji... not sure. But isn’t Ji always a meltdown? I mean that in the nicest way possible. There’s always the daily moment of optimism though, which is welcome. Definitely a great character though, every weather forum needs a Ji

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25 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

I might be farther south than Ji... not sure. But isn’t Ji always a meltdown? I mean that in the nicest way possible. There’s always the daily moment of optimism though, which is welcome. Definitely a great character though, every weather forum needs a Ji

Ji is the best.  Known him virtually for 20 years.  Classic weather smart weenie.  

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