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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS with differences vs 18z...shouldn't be as (drink)...amp'd

That NS wave really makes this harder then it should be in this setup. And that’s the kind of crap you can’t see from range. But even with a weaker solution it still damages the thermals ahead of the southern wave. If that NS wave simply didn’t exist that would be a really simple WAA snow setup. 
This before the NS wave is still pathetic for an airmass that was directly from the Arctic but it’s decent.  It’s enough. 
DB205DE4-DCCF-43C3-91F8-E071C771F9F9.thumb.png.60abf603211a92e73a00181029493e6e.png

but look what the flow under the NS wave did...

371323DB-3C86-4FE7-80BA-4A26A495473B.thumb.png.9a7f607d357592a53918955a503c246b.png

we’ve lost the mid levels before the SS wave is even approaching.  Now we have a double bind. We need cold to press back in but we also need an amplifying wave to get good moisture.  That double bind is why we see such a limited scope to the snow on most runs and why this won’t be the kind of expansive snowstorm it could be in this setup if the NS hasn’t wrecked the thermal profile in front.  It also doesn’t help that even a direct shot of Arctic air isn’t really all that deep to resist a fairly weak wave. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It also doesn’t help that even a direct shot of Arctic air isn’t really all that deep to resist a fairly weak wave. 

Can you clarify what "deep" means in this context?  Do you mean that the air mass isn't that cold?  Or that the cold is only shallow to the surface?  Both?  Neither?

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