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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
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46 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yep, and that will change and shift around 22 more times between now and Tuesday. It's a baby step up from a thread-the-needle event.

Exactly. That was the point I was making earlier. We could very well win the lottery here. But how can anyone feel safe. The snow zone is so narrow a normally nominal shift threatens anyone even if you were in the dead bullseye the run before. 

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This speaks for itself, lol.

1611716400-izo7mBdYx74.png

The gfs is handling the progression completely different then other guidance. This isn’t a case where it’s just north or south or more/less amped then the consensus.  It’s following a totally different course. It’s likely at this range that ensembles based on this it’s physics would do the same. Right or wrong we’re not gleaning much from them in this case. 

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12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The gfs is handling the progression completely different then other guidance. This isn’t a case where it’s just north or south or more/less amped then the consensus.  It’s following a totally different course. It’s likely at this range that ensembles based on this it’s physics would do the same. Right or wrong we’re not gleaning much from them in this case. 

I agree in principle, but when you can't find at least one winner among all the GEFS members and there are a decent handful of stinkers in the 12z EPS (and now more in the 18z), I tend to align (perhaps incorrectly) with the more "consistent" guidance. I realize the GFS/GEFS has been inconsistent in why it's bad for us, but it's always bad for us.

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