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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
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Just now, Paleocene said:

 

verbatim we hold the 850s well south during the thump period but those SW winds are uh, cranking in some 850 juice shortly thereafter

This is either a step in the path to a worse outcome, or it trends back the other way imo. I am leaning towards the latter based on the overall pattern and the tendencies over the last couple weeks.

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1 hour ago, chris21 said:

I thought the GFS looked somewhat different than the Canadian for the first storm. Am I missing something here?

It does differ but still offers no snow, looks like freezing rain.  It does have another possible weird looking snow event later in the month but the surface looks really strange.  The euro does offer some front end snow but with the surface track and development its got,  I'm not sure I buy but hope it's right.

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Do we do the lowered expectations thing and say “at least it’s not the CMC” or do we compare it to the last several runs?

You were the one that said just yesterday or the day before that your biggest concern was suppression with this one. Are you changing your tune on this?  

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14 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

You were the one that said just yesterday or the day before that your biggest concern was suppression with this one. Are you changing your tune on this?  

Based on the pattern it argues suppression. But I’m starting to wonder if the pathetic thermals just can’t resist any southerly flow which is unavoidable ahead of a wave. 

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23 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

It does differ but still offers no snow, looks like freezing rain.  It does have another possible weird looking snow event later in the month but the surface looks really strange.  The euro does offer some front end snow but with the surface track and development its got,  I'm not sure I buy but hope it's right.

I was worried about potential late month cold killing off the newly ubiquitous speckled trout stocks in the lower bay estuaries. Not that worried at this point, next month maybe...

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As much as we rag on the GFS, the Euro is no longer a model you can feel great about. You used to always want it on your side and felt like every model would eventually cave to it. That's no longer the case.

This has interested me for awhile. I assume it can’t be getting worse, so does that mean, as much as we rag on it for iffy updates, the GFS is getting better?

 

to clarify, I know it’s getting better. But EURO has seemed notably less amazing this year while the GFS/CMC hasn’t got much credit.

 

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Hah, we clearly disagree. I’m gonna defer to you though. I’m sure you’re better at this.

You’re both right..he has a lot more wiggle room than we do.  That fades for him if this pushes south obviously.  I’d take a mix of anything wintry at this point.  

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