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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

heavy snow at 126

 

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

heavy snow at 126 but playing with fire lol

 

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Thumping snow at 126.

 

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Regardless... still gonna be a fair bit of snow this run. DCA pummeled at 126

quadruple ninja'd

 

1 minute ago, wawarriors4 said:

DCA Snow at 126, not so much down this way around EZF

What is the precip type in DC at 126? 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Well, we went from a foot to 4".  I mean, better than 0"

the more north the low..the less heavy precip we get too. We wont that low to be in KY. That would give us 2 solid panels of snow instead of 1 and a light mix.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma.png

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

5” thump to mix to dryslot? I’d hit that. Interesting that this starts late Monday morning on the euro now. Speeding up.

Yeah, that's the main difference I see on this run - the southern shortwave speeds up and is a bit more neutral than positive tilted, which leads to a strong sfc reflection. The NS didn't change that much, but this progression gives cold a little less time to press in from the N.

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Just now, CAPE said:

There is no way it stays snow over here for long with the primary taking that track, despite what some of the silly ass surface/snow maps are depicting.

Yeah.  Heavy snow from a low in Indiana is not something I would rely on.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Do we do the lowered expectations thing and say “at least it’s not the CMC” or do we compare it to the last several runs?

Nah we compared it to the last several runs. I don't want anymore sloppy storms. I want a clean snowstorm. Been forever. I don't feel like going through and getting some sloppy 3-4 inches and then seeing it mix and turn to rain/melt and be a sloppy mess. That's basically all I've seen since 2016.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Do we do the lowered expectations thing and say “at least it’s not the CMC” or do we compare it to the last several runs?

Lower expectations because that run was just a stop on the way to shutout town. If everything settles a bit south then we get something.  You get more something.  

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  • mappy changed the title to January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 1 - Day 7)
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