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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z runs will be telling.:yikes:

Lol at flipping from suppression to warm layer worries...but the fact is both have to be a legit concern and the real culprit is the terrifyingly pathetic lack of true cold despite a freaking textbook perfect setup for a mid Atlantic snowstorm in absolute prime climo.  We can’t blame pac puke this time. As I pointed out yesterday everything went right and this airmass was seeded from the Arctic. But it’s just not that cold.   But the result is a double bind. The flow is perfect but that means it’s somewhat suppressive. So we can’t work with a really weak wave that doesn’t pump any ridging because that threatens being squashed.  But without a deep cold airmass any wave that does amplify threatens to press a warm layer too far north. The area that gets good snow isn’t nearly as expansive as it should be in this setup.  We could definitely still score here because this is a textbook perfect setup for a DC snowstorm. But it’s frustratingly more difficult then it should be given how good this setup is. 
 

Im out of ideas wrt temps. Everything went exactly the way we needed. Got the epo ridge to go up and cut off the puke. Got Canada seeded with air from the Arctic not the pac. And it’s still just not cold enough. 

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10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Too much analysis of a single ensemble control run, guys.

 

9 minutes ago, Ajb said:

Why is there any reason to look at the control 

 

6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Control just a short 7 hours ago....someone on here said it was straight filth

Just because it’s just one control run and unlikely to be the final solution also doesn’t mean we should misrepresent/sugarcoat it. It was a BAD run. That’s it. I was pointing that out because I thought it was misrepresented a little and most can’t see it for themselves. 
 

Furthermore no one complains when there are 20 posts breaking down every part of a run that gives us 20” but gets pissy when I do the same with a run that screws us over. Both runs are equally likely and I analyze them exactly the same. 

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1 minute ago, Ajb said:

Sure, but why the control as opposed to p587 or whatever? They have equal weight, right?  Not being pissy; honestly trying to understand. 

Honestly because it was commented on but I felt was misrepresented. Otherwise I wasn’t going to bring it up.  But the control is unperturbed and typically is very close to the operational at that range so absent an op run at 6z the control is the next best hint at what the euro thinks. More so then one of the perturbed members. That said it’s lower resolution so it won’t handle thermals as well...and the euro op was running slightly colder the last few runs so there is that.  I’m not trying to be a deb I was just correcting what that specific run showed.

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I love your optimism but let’s be real since most can’t see the run. The 6z euro control would be a complete and utter disaster and lead to a forum meltdown. It’s all rain for anyone south of a Baltimore to leesburgh line and even up here it’s only a few inches changing to ice/rain.  The entire DC area gets no snow...again. 

 

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33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly because it was commented on but I felt was misrepresented. Otherwise I wasn’t going to bring it up.  But the control is unperturbed and typically is very close to the operational at that range so absent an op run at 6z the control is the next best hint at what the euro thinks. More so then one of the perturbed members. That said it’s lower resolution so it won’t handle thermals as well...and the euro op was running slightly colder the last few runs so there is that.  I’m not trying to be a deb I was just correcting what that specific run showed.

Thanx for the response. Maybe this belongs somewhere else,  but I’m curious the extent to which the next op follows the control. I guess this goes to the implicit probability distribution over the ensemble numbers (with some large unknown weight on “other” I suppose). Assuming the initial conditions update between runs, is there a physics/ingestion reason for the updated initial conditions to be closer to the control than any other perturbed member?

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