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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
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Just now, CAPE said:

Yeah I think it was 34 here. Not sure what that has to do with the next few days though. :ph34r:

It’s the worst January cold front.  It was colder last night than it will be after the front passes here.  We have a bit longer to wait.  

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18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

It's been 35-43 here as highs  for 5 weeks almost strait lol . Sunday only hit 31 with the southern slider .

Looks like you will break that streak as you touch 50.  Better for outside work.  If it’s not going to snow might as well be warm. 

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Just now, BristowWx said:

It’s the worst January cold front.  It was colder last night than it will be after the front passes here.  We have a bit longer to wait.  

Yeah its garbage, but we have known that for awhile. The guidance incrementally backed off on the cold from several days ago, as it is prone to do. Hopefully this doesn't happen with the advertised upcoming cold.

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8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

It’s the worst January cold front.  It was colder last night than it will be after the front passes here.  We have a bit longer to wait.  

It was 22 this morning with heavy frost and ground fog. It will be 30 on Sat night, and maybe 28 Sunday night. More mixing though, so a different situation. Still, not much of a cold front.

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Just now, CAPE said:

Yeah it was 22 this morning with heavy frost and ground fog. It will be 30 on Sat night, and maybe 28 Sunday night. More mixing though, so a different situation. Still, not much of a cold front.

We have to keep waiting for our 2 weeks of winter.  It will probably come and we’ll get some snow along climo lines.  Then the block will break down.  Come back a bit late Feb early March.  Couple of late freezes and boom it’s spring.  Sounds cynical but probably close to reality. 

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11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We have to keep waiting for our 2 weeks of winter.  It will probably come and we’ll get some snow along climo lines.  Then the block will break down.  Come back a bit late Feb early March.  Couple of late freezes and boom it’s spring.  Sounds cynical but probably close to reality. 

I am starting to think it is possible this advertised 'epic pattern' simply never produces, and then later in Feb, when we have a +NAO and everyone has given up, we pop a PNA ridge, all the stars align, and we thread the needle and jack a nice snowstorm lol. Could happen in a Nina.

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

I mostly was pointing out that there's been no torching whatsoever.  I actually love working outside in the winter . I'll take high of 25 over a day 95/75 every single time 

Agreed no torching even here.  No winter weather here either.  It’s the oatmeal pattern.  Keeps you alive but boring as f***

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19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Trend on the Euro has been weakening the primary Friday /Sat more and more every run . 18z the weakest and furthest south yet . Transfer in progress earlier at 90 . Only need a half dozen more bumps and a couple hundred more miles and well have a transfer off Hatteras :weenie:

GFS took a huge jump south with that low

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9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Control with a 999 low off OC early Sat morning :whistle:. -850s... check ...surface... a couple degrees colder we in bidness .

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-ma-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-0798400.png

Be careful with these types of fronts. They’re fast moving and remember the precip is what has fallen over the last 6 hours. Obviously you know that, but a lot of new members might not, just pointing it out. 

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Maybe everyone is big game hunting but seems like Saturday and early Monday snow shower potential is still there. 12z para gfs was more like 1” Monday while Op GFS struggles to get boundary layer temps below 40F. At night. In mid January. With 525dm thicknesses and 850 temps well below freezing. 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Maybe everyone is big game hunting but seems like Saturday and early Monday snow shower potential is still there. 12z para gfs was more like 1” Monday while Op GFS struggles to get boundary layer temps below 40F. At night. In mid January. With 525dm thicknesses and 850 temps well below freezing. 

I don't get why the OP GFS has been doing that, it's been consistent on it too. I must be missing something.

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1 hour ago, wawarriors4 said:

I don't get why the OP GFS has been doing that, it's been consistent on it too. I must be missing something.

The front is wimpy. Temps Friday night will "fall" into the mid to upper 30s for most. Sat temps will rise into the mid 40s. Could there be some splatty wet flakes early Sat morning? Sure. 

I haven't seen any legit snow here since 2019, and this doesn't excite me in the least.

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22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The front is wimpy. Temps Friday night will "fall" into the mid to upper 30s for most. Sat temps will rise into the mid 40s. Could there be some splatty wet flakes early Sat morning? Sure. 

I haven't seen any legit snow here since 2019, and this doesn't excite me in the least.

You are correct. But along the same lines, the gfs is totally whacky at times. Just look at it from about 7 days on compared to its prior run. It’s like two different models

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You are correct. But along the same lines, the gfs is totally whacky at times. Just look at it from about 7 days on compared to its prior run. It’s like two different models

I agree, but we are in the short range now and even have the mesos available for this weekend. I guess it has been dry lately, so the potential for maybe a half inch of rain is...different. lol.

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