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January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
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Just now, WxUSAF said:

EPS has been very steady. Nice to see that continue at 0z. Getting close to being real. Main southern shortwave is onshore in about 72hrs.

It seems like forever away. I know it's not but, with the way this winter has gone, especially with modeling, and then just how it's been since 2016 since a legit storm, and the fact the area of snow is so small with this one, it just seems like so many things can and will go wrong in the next several days.

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3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It seems like forever away. I know it's not but, with the way this winter has gone, especially with modeling, and then just how it's been since 2016 since a legit storm, and the fact the area of snow is so small with this one, it just seems like so many things can and will go wrong in the next several days.

Yeah, it’s still nearly 6 days away so expectations should be tempered. As @psuhoffman has said, it looks like a fairly narrow north-south extent of snow, so very conceivable someone in the region could get screwed. I think suppression (6z gfs like?) is probably the most likely failure mode.

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55 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Control takes the primary into Pittsburgh but we stay firmly in the cad wedge regardless.  Snow to mix verbatim 

I love your optimism but let’s be real since most can’t see the run. The 6z euro control would be a complete and utter disaster and lead to a forum meltdown. It’s all rain for anyone south of a Baltimore to leesburgh line and even up here it’s only a few inches changing to ice/rain.  The entire DC area gets no snow...again. 

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4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

All rain ?  6z ?Your looking at a different run then me  I guess . Definitely frozen for i95 on nw . Verbatim end of run still has surface near freezing even in the cities.  Obviously not all snow .

 

It’s no snow in DC. There is a warm layer at 850 that never gets south of about Baltimore to Leesburg. Anywhere south of that line is pretty much all Ice or rain. Those 2 are the same to me  (I have no interest in ice) so I don’t bother to dig into that but it’s definitely no snow that run in DC. Yes some freezing rain. 

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@losetoa6 this is the furthest south the cold press at mid levels gets during precip.
D57DE37B-567D-46FE-841E-6CA4360C8382.thumb.png.7e7d908203485a8aa08818771f116076.png

And we can assume 850 doesn’t catch the exact warmest layer. So imo go 10 miles NW of the 0 line here and anyone south of that gets no snow on this run.
A6D8158D-4F60-444C-AA74-68F675412E29.thumb.png.d79cab74930c38ec8ff24d63498377ae.png

This is where the 850 isotherm is as the best precip with the WAA band moves through.  Anyone near or south of the line here isn’t going to get a significant snow, maybe a minor event (1-3”) before flipping but certainly nothing that would leave us feeling like we ended the curse lol  

remember the snow Map counts ice as snow. Even up here it looks like only about 2” of snow then changing over and we’re the northern edge of this forum. Yuck. 
 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@losetoa6 this is the furthest south the cold press at mid levels gets during precip.
D57DE37B-567D-46FE-841E-6CA4360C8382.thumb.png.7e7d908203485a8aa08818771f116076.png

And we can assume 850 doesn’t catch the exact warmest layer. So imo go 10 miles NW of the 0 line here and anyone south of that gets no snow on this run.
A6D8158D-4F60-444C-AA74-68F675412E29.thumb.png.d79cab74930c38ec8ff24d63498377ae.png

This is where the 850 isotherm is as the best precip with the WAA band moves through.  Anyone near or south of the line here isn’t going to get a significant snow, maybe a minor event (1-3”) before flipping but certainly nothing that would leave us feeling like we ended the curse lol  

remember the snow Map counts ice as snow. Even up here it looks like only about 2” of snow then changing over and we’re the northern edge of this forum. Yuck. 
 

Well the +12 850's in South Carolina don't bode well for their historic snowstorm

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@losetoa6 this is the furthest south the cold press at mid levels gets during precip.
 

And we can assume 850 doesn’t catch the exact warmest layer. So imo go 10 miles NW of the 0 line here and anyone south of that gets no snow on this run.
 

This is where the 850 isotherm is as the best precip with the WAA band moves through.  Anyone near or south of the line here isn’t going to get a significant snow, maybe a minor event (1-3”) before flipping but certainly nothing that would leave us feeling like we ended the curse lol  

remember the snow Map counts ice as snow. Even up here it looks like only about 2” of snow then changing over and we’re the northern edge of this forum. Yuck. 
 

you being fringed on the mix-line is good at this range. ill take it. 

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Why is there any reason to look at the control (as opposed to any other ensemble member), when the op has the same initial conditions with higher resolution? Isn’t the main point of the control to diagnose the impact of the loss of resolution on the ensemble?

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4 minutes ago, Ajb said:

Why is there any reason to look at the control (as opposed to any other ensemble member), when the op has the same initial conditions with higher resolution? Isn’t the main point of the control to diagnose the impact of the loss of resolution on the ensemble?

Thanks for asking this, was wondering the same.

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