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Texas Winter 2021


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4 hours ago, EpicHECS said:

Posting Winter Storm Warnings for the total entirety of TX is a little laughable. A few inches of snow doesn't even warrant an advisory and having a Winter Storm Warning for areas such as Brazoria County on south is just a total exaggeration of the current situation. This is obviously just an attempt at filling the coffers with federal money. 

lol is this a real comment or trolling. Im loving these photos and observations from Texas. 1" of snow is a lot for the southern parts. 

In this current thinking you might as well not get excited for many of your storms. Northern Michigan-Buffalo-Watertown and parts of Southern Ontario (Canada where I live) routinely see 6-12" snowstorms and daily life continues, parts of Northern Michigan and Muskoka dont get excited until you start talking 1-3 feet and they routinely have 3-4 feet on the ground from November-March. So in your theory they should be laughing at you for shutting down schools, making the nightly news, creating a 100 page thread for a 8-12" storm that will melt in 2-3 days. 

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4 hours ago, EpicHECS said:

Posting Winter Storm Warnings for the total entirety of TX is a little laughable. A few inches of snow doesn't even warrant an advisory and having a Winter Storm Warning for areas such as Brazoria County on south is just a total exaggeration of the current situation. This is obviously just an attempt at filling the coffers with federal money. 

Texas laughs at your excessive heat warnings when it’s 95, yo. 

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Just now, vwgrrc said:

I mean there's a chance it could a more sleet/freezing rain even than purely snow. HRRR & NAM seem both indicating that.

Yeah I am pulling up the GFS...new at reading models, but doesn't seem like there is a ton of QPF with this.  Although it does look it drops right over our house lol. We are located where the blue/purple is in north texas.

image.png.a8c5262908fdc07edb848ea983a14e16.png

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4 minutes ago, SnowMan said:

Yeah I am pulling up the GFS...new at reading models, but doesn't seem like there is a ton of QPF with this.  Although it does look it drops right over our house lol. We are located where the blue/purple is in north texas.

image.png.a8c5262908fdc07edb848ea983a14e16.png

I'm more leaning towards NAM/HRRR at this range and for the type of event. But I'm not a professional by any mean.

image.thumb.png.74a2b9df52017272392e77ef7046b358.png

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As of the NWS Fort Worth's last area forecast discussion, with regard to the next system, they think that areas north of highway 380 see mostly snow, and then between there and I-20 sees a sleet, freezing rain, and snow mix. So, the further north you are, the more snow you could see (being DFW-centric here).

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32 minutes ago, TexMexWx said:

As of the NWS Fort Worth's last area forecast discussion, with regard to the next system, they think that areas north of highway 380 see mostly snow, and then between there and I-20 sees a sleet, freezing rain, and snow mix. So, the further north you are, the more snow you could see (being DFW-centric here).

So that basic place the immediate DFW into trouble zone :(

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1 hour ago, TexMexWx said:

Yup, do not like that. The warm nose is going to probably be a much bigger issue for us this time around than yesterday.

18z HRRR is pushing the snow/sleet slightly south and right across the middle of the metroplex. That's better than 12z, but at the same time a little bit more QPF.

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Segment from short term AFD update from 2 hours ago regarding the Tue/Wed system 


Later in the day, further amplification of upstream ridging off
the West Coast will allow a broad trough to continue digging into
the 4-corners region and West Texas. As it does, surface pressure
falls across Texas will lead to a broad surface trough draped
roughly along the I-20 corridor by midnight Tuesday night. This
will help pull additional moisture north and westward while deep
layer forcing for ascent begins to increase. The tightening low
level thermal gradient will result in a strengthening upper jet
of near 140 kt overnight Tuesday night right across Central and
North Texas. Widespread deep isentropic ascent through the lower
half of the atmosphere should lead to an area of precipitation
rapidly developing in the Texas Big Country and moving into North
Texas overnight Tuesday night. This should be mainly a freezing
rain and/or sleet mix which could result in additional significant
icing especially south of the Metroplex. As the trough pivots
eastward and colder air spills southward, a transition to all snow
is expected north of I-20 with additional snowfall amounts of 3
to 5 inches possible from the Metroplex northeast into the
Arklatex through Wednesday. In addition, temperatures will
continue to be very cold through the end of the week.

A Winter Storm Watch is expected to be issued this afternoon.

Dunn
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NWS AFD on icing -

The latest 3km NAM suggests a significant freezing rain
event will take place with ice accumulations greater than
currently forecast, however, it may be a little too aggressive
with its low level warming given the extremely cold airmass in
place. We`ll have to watch this closely though through the day
Tuesday. Our current forecast will continue to advertise a
freezing rain/sleet potential mainly from the Metroplex southward
with a transition over to snow late in the night. Areas from the
Metroplex northward may see more snow accumulation. Ice
accumulations of 1/10 to 1/4 inch appear likely, especially from
the Waco/Temple/Killeen areas northeast in the Palestine/Canton
areas. There will also be some minor ice accumulations through the
Metroplex before a transition to snow. Snowfall amounts will
range from 2 to 6 inches with the heaviest amounts northeast of
the Metroplex...

Edit: meanwhile 18Z GFS largely dialed down the Wednesday threat.

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49 minutes ago, SnowMan said:

Wonder how much snow melt we will see up in North Texas today before tomorrow's storm.  Hopefully not too much, but with a high around 20 and the sun angle we could see more than expected.

latest guidance seems showing a lower amount of snow/sleet than previously expected. Not a bad news given the stress we have in infrastructure now

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Anyone know why the forecast pages, hourly forecasts, and snowfall map on FWD's main page all diverge in their snowfall projections? And 2nding the power companies and state leguslature being held responsible. I know two folks without electricity *and* running water since no heat = burst pipes in this weather. There is no reason for folks having to poop in a bucket all to line the pockets of politicians and CEOs

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