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BullCityWx

January 8th event obs

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The ULL opened up, was modeled to always be a risk at this juncture of hapening. We can thank the confluence getting screwed up in the NE. Should close back off this afternoon and deepen  as it exits the coast. Look for things to fire up for a couple hours for mostly everyone. Supose to get a  10-15 mb drop into the 990's. 

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Despite having good returns overhead for the past 30 minutes or so, only a random flake or two has been making it to the ground so far. 

Current temp: 38.3

Dew point 30.1

no snow.jpg

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10 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Gut feeling is the band this evening overperforms for someone, probably somewhere between US 1 and I-95.

I’m in Rockingham, so we shall see!

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Sorry for sideways pic, it was a miracle I figured out to add the image. That is looking towards The Cottages off 105 then beyond that is Howard’s Knob.

CAFC1695-A20A-4E72-B0EF-C932163CB0B3.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Liquid snow in Raleigh

I’m hugging the HRRR for this evening’s dusting 

up to 39 with on and off rain. Sun broke through a few times 

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9 minutes ago, Disc said:

3" and 28F. Dumping snow. Roanoke County.

Screenshot_4.png

I expected to be taking this photo here in the Triad.  Thanks for giving me that visual @Disc.  I needed closure.  :arrowhead:

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Update from RAH NWS

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...

Forecast reasoning remains relatively unchanged from the previous
forecast, with main forecast changes to total snow accumulations
thanks largely to a lack of measurable snow as of yet. The back edge
of the precipitation shield was sharply eroded late last night-early
this morning and did not allow sufficient precipitation rates to
overcome the marginally cold boundary layer to support for wet-bulb
cooling over the Piedmont, so mainly rain resulted until about 1230Z
over the Triad, when the visibility subsequently decreased to
between 3/4SM and 1 1/2SM for a short time in a briefly heavier band
of snow. The p-type has since changed back to rain as precipitation
intensity has decreased. That will continue to be the case until
precipitation intensity increases with deeper ascent and the arrival
of the deformation band now over wrn NC, which is expected over the
wrn Piedmont late this afternoon-early evening, then ewd across the
remainder of cntl NC early tonight. Given that no accumulations were
observed this morning, and it is unlikely any of consequence will
occur until the deformation band and west to east change over to
snow arrives, after dark for all but the NW Piedmont, previously
forecast snow accumulations have generally been halved - 1-2 in the
Warning area to a coating to an inch in the Advisory area, with
localized higher amounts still possible. Will allow the current
headlines to continue and reassess changes with the main afternoon
forecast package.

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15 minutes ago, Disc said:

3" and 28F. Dumping snow. Roanoke County.

Screenshot_4.png

Love when people back the term “dumping” up with pictures. Congrats! You guys always seem to score looks beautiful 

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2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Update from RAH NWS

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM Friday...

Forecast reasoning remains relatively unchanged from the previous
forecast, with main forecast changes to total snow accumulations
thanks largely to a lack of measurable snow as of yet. The back edge
of the precipitation shield was sharply eroded late last night-early
this morning and did not allow sufficient precipitation rates to
overcome the marginally cold boundary layer to support for wet-bulb
cooling over the Piedmont, so mainly rain resulted until about 1230Z
over the Triad, when the visibility subsequently decreased to
between 3/4SM and 1 1/2SM for a short time in a briefly heavier band
of snow. The p-type has since changed back to rain as precipitation
intensity has decreased. That will continue to be the case until
precipitation intensity increases with deeper ascent and the arrival
of the deformation band now over wrn NC, which is expected over the
wrn Piedmont late this afternoon-early evening, then ewd across the
remainder of cntl NC early tonight. Given that no accumulations were
observed this morning, and it is unlikely any of consequence will
occur until the deformation band and west to east change over to
snow arrives, after dark for all but the NW Piedmont, previously
forecast snow accumulations have generally been halved - 1-2 in the
Warning area to a coating to an inch in the Advisory area, with
localized higher amounts still possible. Will allow the current
headlines to continue and reassess changes with the main afternoon
forecast package.

So a winter storm warning for rate-driven 1-2” snow... I’d have pulled the plug on it 

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16 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

You can see the deform band start to form/fill in. Hoping for a few hours of moderate snow at this point

Yes, been watching that too for last couple hours.  It's going to be pretty nice for someone beyond the mtns

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Dropping the hammer at the farm in Stuart VA.  Will easily give me a dusting there over the next 30 minutes.  Big ole flakage.

EDIT - coming down in buckets now, ground going white quick.  Too bad I have to watch through my security cams.

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1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

Congrats dude , i hadn't got anything,  doesn't look like I will...

Crazy because it’s been moderate to heavy snow for several hours. Funny how these things always work out. Def have a solid inch on grass and building. 

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Dang where is that Catawba? 

Near Floyd County line in southern Roanoke Co. 

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