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Winter Banter and General Disco 2


dendrite
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There was a conversation on the radio about some tiktok video with a woman spouting the revelation that when a forecast says 30% chance of rain, it does not mean that there is a 30% of rain, but that it's a 100% chance of rain, but a 30% chance of rain in YOUR area.  The discussion was interesting as the whole YOUR area is open to interpretation.  
Quite honestly I never thought of it that way...the 100% chance, but I suppose it makes sense, since it is going to rain somewhere. 

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31 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

There was a conversation on the radio about some tiktok video with a woman spouting the revelation that when a forecast says 30% chance of rain, it does not mean that there is a 30% of rain, but that it's a 100% chance of rain, but a 30% chance of rain in YOUR area.  The discussion was interesting as the whole YOUR area is open to interpretation.  
Quite honestly I never thought of it that way...the 100% chance, but I suppose it makes sense, since it is going to rain somewhere. 

I listen to a similar discussion a few years ago and it made sense to me.

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Anyone here familiar with small engines. I have a Troy bilt mower with a Honda engine. I fixed a gummed up carb today. And when I ran it, it was running at low rpm... so there are two holes on the governor arm, I moved it to the further hole, and it ran at pretty high rpm. Is this bad, or can I leave it?

to illustrate below. You can see the linkage in the first hole of the governor arm. I moved it to the second hole.

there is now more tension, thus running at higher rpm.

image.thumb.jpeg.d2bcf938b36cbdbb0c5f7b811c088471.jpeg

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5 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Anyone here familiar with small engines. I have a Troy bilt mower with a Honda engine. I fixed a gummed up carb today. And when I ran it, it was running at low rpm... so there are two holes on the governor arm, I moved it to the further hole, and it ran at pretty high rpm. Is this bad, or can I leave it?

to illustrate below. You can see the linkage in the first hole of the governor arm. I moved it to the second hole.

there is now more tension, thus running at higher rpm.

image.thumb.jpeg.d2bcf938b36cbdbb0c5f7b811c088471.jpeg

I would move it back to the first hole and clean up all the governor linkages including the top one. Spray them with carb cleaner. Get all the linkages on the outside of the carb as well.  Its extremely common for those linkages to get all gummed up and siezed. All that heat and dust causes them to stick. 

It looks like it has a throttle cable? Does that not adjust the engine speed?

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53 minutes ago, BrianW said:

I would move it back to the first hole and clean up all the governor linkages including the top one. Spray them with carb cleaner. Get all the linkages on the outside of the carb as well.  Its extremely common for those linkages to get all gummed up and siezed. All that heat and dust causes them to stick. 

It looks like it has a throttle cable? Does that not adjust the engine speed?

Thanks... that’s actually not my mower. Just used it to illustrate what I was talking about.

Ill do that though. In the spring, I’ll clean it all up and see what happens. Maybe I can buy a new spring and it’ll fit better too.

I only bought the damn thing last spring. It has probably 15 hours on it. Wish I wasn’t having these issues.

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i can't believe game stop again. 

Its all in the call options . Forget just buying the stock.  Millionaires made again today with 10 thousand dollars. I don't know of any other way to do that legal or not in this world. GME has done it twice now.  

Was 50$ this morning...call options  w 100 strike price expiring this friday were like 25$ per option.  If this opens at 170$ Thursday... those calls w  100 Strike should open at 7000$ per option. This was driven by insane volume and some folks bought  Hundreds of calls today for 25$ per.   Do the math . Now whoever bought at the BOTTOM will get the reddit retail traders to be future bag holders as they buy late. 

IF Robinhood allowed call options in GME again they will probably go bankrupt now. 

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21 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

i can't believe game stop again. 

Its all in the call options . Forget just buying the stock.  Millionaires made again today with 10 thousand dollars. I don't know of any other way to do that legal or not in this world. GME has done it twice now.  

Was 50$ this morning...call options  w 100 strike price expiring this friday were like 25$ per option.  If this opens at 170$ Thursday... those calls w  100 Strike should open at 7000$ per option. This was driven by insane volume and some folks bought  Hundreds of calls today for 25$ per.   Do the math . Now whoever bought at the BOTTOM will get the reddit retail traders to be future bag holders as they buy late. 

IF Robinhood allowed call options in GME again they will probably go bankrupt now. 

What was the trigger today? Wary of falling for the reddit financial flash mob again...

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11 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

What was the trigger today? Wary of falling for the reddit financial flash mob again...

There was none...just like last time.  Just a planned attack. 

I'm looking at FUBO calls tommorrow. Stock popped( doubled ) last time there was GME run up  (from 28 to 62 $) and not only did it not fall back much but it stayed above it's 50 day moving average... is 40$  currently and has a 50$ price target due to increased revenue from Sports gaming and it just is about to bounce as it's at its 50 day moving average. This thing could go to 70 easily should the shorts close shop and this see near the  volume it did last time. Calls expiring this Friday are cheap so it would be a 2 day play .   Also PETS  

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41 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

There was none...just like last time.  Just a planned attack. 

I'm looking at FUBO calls tommorrow. Stock popped( doubled ) last time there was GME run up  (from 28 to 62 $) and not only did it not fall back much but it stayed above it's 50 day moving average... is 40$  currently and has a 50$ price target due to increased revenue from Sports gaming and it just is about to bounce as it's at its 50 day moving average. This thing could go to 70 easily should the shorts close shop and this see near the  volume it did last time. Calls expiring this Friday are cheap so it would be a 2 day play .   Also PETS  

NAKD

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42 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

There was none...just like last time.  Just a planned attack. 

I'm looking at FUBO calls tommorrow. Stock popped( doubled ) last time there was GME run up  (from 28 to 62 $) and not only did it not fall back much but it stayed above it's 50 day moving average... is 40$  currently and has a 50$ price target due to increased revenue from Sports gaming and it just is about to bounce as it's at its 50 day moving average. This thing could go to 70 easily should the shorts close shop and this see near the  volume it did last time. Calls expiring this Friday are cheap so it would be a 2 day play .   Also PETS  

Your call on DNN a few weeks back was spot on

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1 hour ago, wxsniss said:

Your call on DNN a few weeks back was spot on

The market seemed to digest the higher yields so far by selling off  E comm/ TECH  (and Utilities today) especially in names w super high valuation like AMZN/ SHOPIFY / MELI  but Energy Sector has really been a Beast lately.  Its interesting how  BIG money is always rotating into different sectors as the market makes it's journey and it seems many long time successful traders have tracked Big money inflows by sector and made moves when the SP 500 bounces off lower resistance bands within uptrends or breaks above resistance levels (and bought at those times into the hot sectors) . Its one of the tried and true strategies (i.e profitable long term but not infalliable).  Most predictable within established Bull markets like now. 

DNN is a miner and the small caps in the energy sector have been red hot. You have commodity prices increasing at a time when small cap stocks have been making new highs and money has been flowing into Energy. Money is also JUST NOW ready to  flowing back into Semiconductors.  China has recently threatened to withhold rare earth miners and Semi conductor chips so really any small to micro cap mining stock for lithium, graphite, uranium, nickel has done well ..its actually hard to find ONE of those miners's  that hasn't tripled in last 4 months so at this point you gotta actually look to find one that still has much room from here. Regarding   Semi conductor  manufacturer stocks ..any   (with a recent earnings beat) (AMAT/ AOSL/ FORM/COHU  has been a primo risk -reward today.  You have the administration focused on preparing to focus on amplifying our Supply in case China acts on veiled threats .  Here .. Your entry price is a huge deal ...and ridiculously so when buying options..so the dip yesterday am and this morning were exceptional opportunities.  Some fell 20% on the panic selling....so that was the time to buy ..when there was "blood in the streets" .

*There is just still such a high risk because the 10 year bond yields are like 3% away from a key 1.44 level and FED CHIEF Papa powell didn't do squat to lower those yields (i.e say the fed was going to step in to monetize them to cap the rates and keep main street borrowing costs lower for a favorable recovery)   but it's like the market which wants to run higher (because everyone is long) just likes to hear his soothing voice the last two days (he had two 3 hour scheduled speaking engagements) and he literally soothes the markets. The markets fell HARD both mornings for the 30 minutes after open before he began yapping at 10am. 

Now the markets are going the next few days without him to talk them up for 3 hours a day  and if yields rise fast  (which they are steadily and can turn on a dime )  we WILL sell off again (Maybe in  more than just tech stocks) extremely fast. Historically stock prices fall 7-8 faster than they rise.  I.E a few months gains can be wiped out in a few days.  Its madness right  now. 

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5 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Yeah I wish I sold at the high of $1.60 awhile back....but I think I'm in it for the long term anyway 

I always trim my position by at least half if a stock doubles within a week or so on no major news . Because usually day traders will sell it off (unless there was major news) .  And then if i like it a lot i buy it back when it comes down to it's 20 day moving average. But anyway ya i think many of these will go up for a while over time and watching these and trading em is time consuming. 

That has happened in literally 50-100 lithium /graphite / uranium and nickel small caps in last month.  My watch list has grown so long that TD won't update my watch list with real time quotes until i cut it back by like 10 names. 

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