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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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3 minutes ago, chris21 said:

Pretty stout west based neg nao doing it’s thing there.

Pretty warm out in front-- despite the NAO and lower heights near 50/50. IT's a timing issue where cold air is coming at the same time as the storm. Could end up 300 miles north or south depending on timing. 

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59 minutes ago, MocoMike said:

Does the SER ahead of this system keep it from being suppressed?  When I look at this, I think it is going to cut.  Thoughts?

 

Here's the ensemble 850 temps during the peak of precip (198hrs)

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-t850-1252000.thumb.png.9261e800a1e55536bd536e297c2f129a.png

Seems pretty darn borderline, however, here is the same panel at 0z

1898616275_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ne-t850-1252000(1).thumb.png.b31637c064373ba7e71554247aaf1f30.png

Even with the SER flexing itself ahead of time, the 850s still are manageable. Surface temps aren't the best, but it's still not a bad place to be this far out. This seems like a characteristic of overrunning, no? Borderline 850s and a thump of moisture. Certainly beats looking at a South Carolina bullseye at this length out, at least imo. 

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Extended blocking is a possibility. 

MSLP forecasts for February-April from this month's update to the @CopernicusECMWF seasonal suite. Some suggestion of negative NAO lasting into March. Note that JMA, Météo-France, NCEP & UKMO have a weaker SSW signal because they are time-lagged ensembles.
 
 
Image
@SimonLeeWx
Because of the time-lagged ensemble approach used by the Met Office vs. the "burst" approach used by ECMWF, the January C3S update of GloSea5 only had a max. ~40% probability of a major SSW, versus 100% from SEAS5. Very different tropospheric forecasts likely a result of this!
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13 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

The member view is getting much 'bluer' with each run... several nice hits in there now:

1610539200-KdqvznCp838.png

 

I will go out on a limb and say that this is our first real snow threat, for SE of I-95. I will probably get burned

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30 minutes ago, frd said:

Extended blocking is a possibility. 

MSLP forecasts for February-April from this month's update to the @CopernicusECMWF seasonal suite. Some suggestion of negative NAO lasting into March. Note that JMA, Météo-France, NCEP & UKMO have a weaker SSW signal because they are time-lagged ensembles.
 
 
Image
@SimonLeeWx
Because of the time-lagged ensemble approach used by the Met Office vs. the "burst" approach used by ECMWF, the January C3S update of GloSea5 only had a max. ~40% probability of a major SSW, versus 100% from SEAS5. Very different tropospheric forecasts likely a result of this!

Still no sign of blocking breaking down.  But it has to actually help at some point lol. My guess if it holds i through early Feb it will. Kinda hard to run a block through Jan 20-Feb 10 and not snow. That  would be something 

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HH GFS looks really similar to 12Z Euro thru 12z Tues and then they diverge. Euro brings the wave east while GFS just parks it in the SW for an eternity for some reason.
Euro worked cause it came in early enough to interact with some hp/cad. Gfs is a few days after

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

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6 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

HH GFS looks really similar to 12Z Euro thru 12z Tues and then they diverge. Euro brings the wave east while GFS just parks it in the SW for an eternity for some reason.

One major difference is how they handle the flow in Canada. The euro has a SW way up north out of the way while the GFS digs that further south just north of the lakes which impacts the flow over the US. Where the euro has a high over the top the gfs has a low creating a weakness for the storm to cut because of how they handle that feature. 

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Just now, Ji said:

Euro worked cause it came in early enough to interact with some hp/cad. Gfs is a few days after

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk
 

Yeah, even with the terrible track on the GFS it's still ice to drizzle to dry slot. Shows you what a block can do.  Still in the game. Big threat window is still open imo. 

 

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