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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

i actually dont get excited about blue on the maps unless i see it 3-4 runs in a row. But everytime we have a good trend, the next 3-4 runs are 5 steps back. thats the realistic perspective. 

and at any given day or timestamp during a "good" period, you can often find blue over your house.  Yes, we also see the same trends you see, but just dont flip sh!t every 6 hours.  You've been at this almost as long as i have and should know that very rarely do we get into longwave stable patterns that just are chalk fulla blue over your house.  Of late, we've become experts at bootleggin more times than not.  Regardless, the upcoming period will continue to show you blue at varying intervals on varying models...and when we start seeing consensue build...I'll get excited right along w/ you.  Until then....keep it real.

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Euro is a nice psychological boost.   But it changes every 12 hours and has no support.   Just this once, can we get something to f*cking stick
It was on the verge of something big last night right? So 2 good runs in a row?

Sent from my SM-G981V using Tapatalk

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29 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Euro is trying hard to make it blue day 8

 

Instead of day 10 we have a day 8 threat on the Euro. That is actually something substantial to take with more cautious optimism. If it continues to get closer as it has been for a couple days we may be in legit tracking business in the MR thread! I'm hopeful on this one....the tellies say this is real.

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23 minutes ago, Ji said:

i mean you have the euro, the gfs and GGEM. 2/3 are showing something fun

JMA is on board but isn't seeing the block. Transfers too late and holds the primary too long....classic bias. HP is in a half decent spot for this range.

Eta: going back to making meatloaf. Enjoy your afternoon. Hope this is optimistic enough 

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Instead of day 10 we have a day 8 threat on the Euro. That is actually something substantial to take with more cautious optimism. If it continues to get closer as it has been for a couple days we may be in legit tracking business in the MR thread! I'm hopeful on this one....the tellies say this is real.

Hopefully its cookin' up something good for us.

see what I did there?

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Guidance picks up CAD better as we get closer. Especially under a block with 50/50 confluence. 

He already knew that....just needed to read a post sayin it so he could tell his friends.......

 

I read it on the internet.

 

Alright JI, I'm done for now.  You got your blue for at least 6 hrs (on a couple models mind you). 

Relish the time my friend.    

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

JMA is on board but isn't seeing the block. Transfers too late and holds the primary too long....classic bias. HP is in a half decent spot for this range.

Eta: going back to making meatloaf. Enjoy your afternoon. Hope this is optimistic enough 

I googled that pork thingy youre makin.  

What time shall we be over?  Sounds delish...

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1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said:

Does this storm get pushed further south from what the Euro is modeling with the block?

IMO ops are still trying to correct w/ the blocking, but to your point, look at the last 2 storms and how they looked a week ago vs where they ended up (shredder).  Indicies suggest suppression is a valid worry, but until you stop seeing systems headed for Chicago, and everything going under us....then i'd start to worry.  I think next couple days start to shed light on strength of NAO/EPO/AO and what it translates to here in the MA. 

FWIW we all are better positioned than interior NE, as its frozen popcorn farts for the forseeable future for them. 

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