Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
 Share

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

great. so we are on to Feb now!

 

here is a good way to look at it

the Dec 15 storm is our Dec 19,2010 storm.

then we had no storms until the end of Jan in 2010(remember how much i complained) which is whats happening now

Feb was epic as will Feb 2021 be.

basically we are on track for a modified version of 09-10 minus the cold and snow

 

 

  • Like 3
  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Delayed usually means denied around here.  If we're now talking about late Jan/early Feb, we seem to just keep kicking the can down the road.  

I'm not saying we won't score, but its starting to feel like we just keep pushing things to the right in terms of looks that translate to actual threats.

Yet just a few days ago we were looking at plenty of chances on ops and ensembles.

Interesting exercise, and I do enjoy reading the analysis, but I'm just not willing to get excited or bummed about result from even a consecutive series of suites.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Yet just a few days ago we were looking at plenty of chances on ops and ensembles.

Interesting exercise, and I do enjoy reading the analysis, but I'm just not willing to get excited or bummed about result from even a consecutive series of suites.

Past 150 is dangerous. I’ve been saying the globals seem to hone in on synoptic level details starting around 150. Those threats evaporated right as we reached that threshold. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Delayed usually means denied around here.  If we're now talking about late Jan/early Feb, we seem to just keep kicking the can down the road.  

I'm not saying we won't score, but its starting to feel like we just keep pushing things to the right in terms of looks that translate to actual threats.

We need to get cold into the pattern. The pac still looks to be more favorable to get cold back on our side soon. That’s delayed here because the initial cold goes west first but if the blocking is still there it will expand east after.  If we can hold onto the blocking after the cold gets into the pattern we will have more luck. The fail option is if the blocking breaks down then Feb will end up cold west ridge east because the epo ridge is too far west absent blocking.  Epo alone doesn’t work it needs other factors working in concert. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We need to get cold into the pattern. The pac still looks to be more favorable to get cold back on our side soon. That’s delayed here because the initial cold goes west first but if the blocking is still there it will expand east after.  If we can hold onto the blocking after the cold gets into the pattern we will have more luck. The fail option is if the blocking breaks down then Feb will end up cold west ridge east because the epo ridge is too far west absent blocking.  Epo alone doesn’t work it needs other factors working in concert. 

NAO seems to have staying power so I'm still bullish on our chances (not talking KU but keeping expectations in check on warning event) even if this exercise is frustrating AF.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Confirmation of what we’ve been saying for a while. 

 

I read this to say it was expected and not a fail but that's just me. Seems like some expected more out of the pattern when it never really was set up to succeed. I'm sure I'm reading it wrong though...oh well

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I read this to say it was expected and not a fail but that's just me. Seems like some expected more out of the pattern when it never really was set up to succeed. I'm sure I'm reading it wrong though...oh well

I don’t like to assume an interpretation of someone else’s thoughts. That’s possible but I do know weeks ago he was implying he felt optimistic for January snowfall so I read it to be more about the “total” part. He takes a much more global view then IMBY. Parts of the southern plains and Deep South have had one of their snowiest winters in forever. But again...I don’t want to put any words in anyone else’s mouth. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don’t like to assume an interpretation of someone else’s thoughts. That’s possible but I do know he was implying he felt optimistic for January so I read it to be more about the “total” part. He takes a much more global view then IMBY. Parts of the southern plains and Deep South have had one of their snowiest winters in forever. But again...I don’t want to put any words in anyone else’s mouth. 

Late January is what I read from him

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Late January is what I read from him

Yes but wasn’t that always our target too?  Although i think we were hopeful maybe starting around the 15th but the last week of January looking more likely now.  But my point is even though we kinda expected it to fail...it’s still a fail right?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Past 150 is dangerous. I’ve been saying the globals seem to hone in on synoptic level details starting around 150. Those threats evaporated right as we reached that threshold. 

Agreed that looking past more then even a handful of days is perilous, but when ensembles agree on identified windows and the occasional op run confirms the potential, then I know I won't personally get down if those looks fizzle a bit. If that continues happening over the next couple weeks then I'll be a bit more concerned.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at 12z GFS for Friday and seeing trough going negative is letting the trailing energy pop a coastal just east of us.  Looking just beyond, i'd dare say it looks acceptable so far.

I'd not toss it, cause its the best look we've had in a couple days and its only 5 days out.  Small step in right direction.

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

@leesburg 04 I think sometimes when I’m carrying on multiple different streams of thought in here they get confused.  I’m really carrying on 3 distinctly independent conversations. 

1. lamenting the expected but still disappointing fail of the split flow blocking pattern.  We saw the signs that the antecedent airmass wasn’t going to work but there was some hope maybe given a pretty excellent longwave pattern we could get lucky. We didn’t. But there is also the fact that historically that pattern isn’t cold but it’s often been colder and just cool enough to get a better outcome. This year was pretty warm compared to analogs to that look. It’s worth noting that at least. 


2. the degradation of the first discreet threat period (Jan 15-20) of what looks to be a colder N American regime is losing potential. It’s not a total pattern fail but there is a bit of MC forcing spike and the initial cold press goes west.  We might even pop a ridge initially before the cold spreads east. It’s a see saw effect. Put a dump of cold west without enough cold already in the pattern east and...up goes our side.  Over time the see saw will balance provided the blocking remains. 


3. Longer term Jan into Feb still looks promising though. The blocking continues to look to have legs and we get cold back into our source regions.   HM pointed out in another post in that thread I shared some of that the progression of the pattern after the initial maritime continent forcing could be favorable because we’re already in a blocking regime and cold will be pressing back into our source regions.  We should have a period of -EPO -NAO late January into Feb.  That’s hopeful. 
 

And I totally get the frustration and wanting to just be like “why bother” but I’m just breaking down where things stand now. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...