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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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Wait ... we only need a 100% absolutely dead perfect textbook pattern.  I thought we needed a storm during that ephemeral window too. 

Seriously, many of the the myriad things we need to get a substantial snow are highly correlated with each other so at some point things will improve rapidly. 

Hard not to think that luck has been lacking lately when we hear about snows in Texas, Oklahoma, Madrid etc. 

Its kind of amusing to be rooting for flow from Canada and when it comes several alert posters point out both graphically and with numbers that it is of Pacific origin - Those posts and the wonderful analysis by you and others makes this an enjoyable forum. 

Also, I encourage members to spend a few days each winter in northern New England and to track the weather at your destination several weeks in advance. Very rewarding.  Unfortunately, this winter, a few trips to White Grass may have to suffice for me. 

On to the 12UT suite, hopefully, we can all meet in the 3-7 day forum soon ... 

 

 

 

 

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Just now, Prestige Worldwide said:

A real gully washer here at the coast- but that’s to be expected. Good luck to you guys 

Looking at h5 192-204 it’s pretty sweet.  I wouldn’t just assume gullywasher even at the coast.  Especially with solutions that have more pronounced blocking. 

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50 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

 

Its kind of amusing to be rooting for flow from Canada and when it comes several alert posters point out both graphically and with numbers that it is of Pacific origin -

I don’t know if you were pointing this out or not, sometimes I suck at context clues, but this is exactly what I’m talking about. We are downwind of the pac!  Almost always our airmass will be pacific in origins. And before it was in the pacific it was probably over Asia!  But air masses do change characteristics some. There is a huge difference between a pacific Maritime airmass that originated in the tropical or subtropical pacific blasting straight across the US at mid latitudes and a pacific airmass that originated in the colder north Pacific then traversed Alaska and the Yukon before diving into the US. The former will never work. The latter better darn well work because that’s responsible for 90% of our snow. How common do you think a direct cross polar flow from Siberia is?  And guess what more often then not when we get those arctic blasts once in a blue moon it’s a cold dry pattern then warms before any storm comes because typically to get that you need a full latitude wave 1 EPO ridge configuration and that is NOT good for getting a favorable storm track here.  If we need a direct flow from Siberia to get snow we (as DT would say) are fooked. 

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The signal for the 19/20th has only become more pronounced in the last 24 hours. All the parts are there. Severely displaced TPV in southern Canada. Colder antecedent airmass. -NAO.  Very nice wave depth and alignment signature.  But the details models will not get accurate at this range will determine exactly how it plays out. No sense getting upset over those details that will change every run for another couple days. 150 hours seems to be about the magic spot where the globals start to hone in on some synoptic level details. We’re still 2 days from that. 
 

I will say this about the 12z gfs. If we get a big rainstorm on January 19th from a 984 low 75 miles east of Ocean City with a closed h5 low track across southern VA and a TPV just north of Michigan I am done for the year and I mean it. That’s absolutely ridiculous. And don’t someone tell me how this or that was 2.5 miles off from being perfect. If that setup doesn’t get us a snowstorm we’re wasting our time. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The signal for the 19/20th has only become more pronounced in the last 24 hours. All the parts are there. Severely displaced TPV in southern Canada. Colder antecedent airmass. -NAO.  Very nice wave depth and alignment signature.  But the details models will not get accurate at this range will determine exactly how it plays out. No sense getting upset over those details that will change every run for another couple days. 150 hours seems to be about the magic spot where the globals start to hone in on some synoptic level details. We’re still 2 days from that. 
 

I will say this about the 12z gfs. If we get a big rainstorm on January 19th from a 984 low 75 miles east of Ocean City with a closed h5 low track across southern VA and a TPV just north of Michigan I am done for the year and I mean it. That’s absolutely ridiculous. And don’t someone tell me how this or that was 2.5 miles off from being perfect. If that setup doesn’t get us a snowstorm we’re wasting our time. 

The good thing is it’s only 7ish days away. Not super fantasy land. We just need to get rid of these low heights around the lakes and move a stout high to our NE. This h5 is pretty darn close to a thumping though

image.thumb.png.debb3507a2e0b0482e52f005205d5ee4.png

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

I will say this about the 12z gfs. If we get a big rainstorm on January 19th from a 984 low 75 miles east of Ocean City with a closed h5 low track across southern VA and a TPV just north of Michigan I am done for the year and I mean it. That’s absolutely ridiculous. And don’t someone tell me how this or that was 2.5 miles off from being perfect. If that setup doesn’t get us a snowstorm we’re wasting our time

I agree.  Taking a break from tracking.  Nice day out.  Taking our Greyhound for a walk.  Of course looking forward to the GEFS and the EPS. I rather luck out being g too cold because it seems cold is the issue not precip.  

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11 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

will say this about the 12z gfs. If we get a big rainstorm on January 19th from a 984 low 75 miles east of Ocean City with a closed h5 low track across southern VA and a TPV just north of Michigan I am done for the year and I mean it. That’s absolutely ridiculous. And don’t someone tell me how this or that was 2.5 miles off from being perfect. If that setup doesn’t get us a snowstorm we’re wasting our time. 

At least I'll have the best reaping I've ever had and my last

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13 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

The good thing is it’s only 7ish days away. Not super fantasy land. We just need to get rid of these low heights around the lakes and move a stout high to our NE. This h5 is pretty darn close to a thumping though

image.thumb.png.debb3507a2e0b0482e52f005205d5ee4.png

This is a different longwave setup then the one you’re describing. We haven’t had this look much recently, it’s not that uncommon historically but it’s been virtually extinct lately.  But the TPV displaced in south central Canada will promote lower heights in the lakes and ridging to our northeast. And if we didn’t have a huge western ridge and a -NAO with a decently cold antecedent airmass that would be a death sentence which is what we’re used to lately.  But with a trough of that depth/longitude/axis we actually need that. Anything that forms down south would end up way OTS otherwise. That’s the kind of look where a storm runs the coast.  Us being the furthest west of the megalopolis actually is favorable here. These type setups were more common in the past and can leave eastern NE more susceptible to a flip sometimes if it takes an inside track. The key for us is the trough not going negative too early or trending further west. There was a high to our northeast. Weak but it’s there. The lakes low is behind the dominant southern wave and the coastal develops a closed mid level circulation before that should interfere. But that’s another detail we need. The northern stream needs to feed into the southern wave not the other way. If the NS is the dominant SW this won’t work.  Ideally if future runs trend towards a 50/50 low this goes from a very good look with MECS potential to a perfect HECS one but with the TPV in southern Canada that’s a tough ask as that’s going to promote ridging in front. But it also is going to dig the trough just to our west so it compensates for that issue some also. 

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