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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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2 hours ago, uncletim said:

Not even much interest in the late night model runs, so even though I'm normally just a lurker I'll say thanks psuhoffman for the continued analysis and keeping hope alive.

The window of best opportunity has been identified for a while now. Most have probably gotten bored with regurgitating/reading the same stuff over and over, or whining about op runs with no blue pixels over their yards.

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The 6z GFS op has blue over our yards on the 18th and again on the 21st with a coastal storm, although it is a bit too far SE. Should be seeing more threats pop on the op runs now that we are within 10 days of what is looking like a very favorable period upcoming.

Love your posts dude. Just so you know.

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I’m not going to analyze it or freak out but I’ll just put it out there. The 0z EPS is an unmitigated disaster. It lost the poleward EPO ridge and develops a flat central pac ridge which directs the pac firehouse jet right into the US. There isn’t even any transition because that happens so fast the pattern is wrecked before the next flux of the NAO can even do us any good. It’s just one run. GEFS at 6z still looks good. Just hope it’s wrong. It shows exactly what I said my fear was if the N PAC pattern relaxed. 

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22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not going to analyze it or freak out but I’ll just put it out there. The 0z EPS is an unmitigated disaster. It lost the poleward EPO ridge and develops a flat central pac ridge which directs the pac firehouse jet right into the US. There isn’t even any transition because that happens so fast the pattern is wrecked before the next flux of the NAO can even do us any good. It’s just one run. GEFS at 6z still looks good. Just hope it’s wrong. It shows exactly what I said my fear was if the N PAC pattern relaxed. 

Sorry, don't have access to maps to long range maps. I'm guessing this is in the uber long range - 10 day+?  We would still have a bit of a window if what the EPS is hinting at played out, correct? 

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25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not going to analyze it or freak out but I’ll just put it out there. The 0z EPS is an unmitigated disaster. It lost the poleward EPO ridge and develops a flat central pac ridge which directs the pac firehouse jet right into the US. There isn’t even any transition because that happens so fast the pattern is wrecked before the next flux of the NAO can even do us any good. It’s just one run. GEFS at 6z still looks good. Just hope it’s wrong. It shows exactly what I said my fear was if the N PAC pattern relaxed. 

Does that mean I'll get to open my windows and wear shorts outside like last winter? If yes then bring it on.  

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44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not going to analyze it or freak out but I’ll just put it out there. The 0z EPS is an unmitigated disaster. It lost the poleward EPO ridge and develops a flat central pac ridge which directs the pac firehouse jet right into the US. There isn’t even any transition because that happens so fast the pattern is wrecked before the next flux of the NAO can even do us any good. It’s just one run. GEFS at 6z still looks good. Just hope it’s wrong. It shows exactly what I said my fear was if the N PAC pattern relaxed. 

It has been trending that way for a few runs. Hopefully it is wrong or overstating the pattern shift. It is depicting what is typical for Nina though(Pac ridge/western trough), so I have been expecting we would see it at some point. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It has been trending that way for a few runs. Hopefully it is wrong or overstating the pattern shift. It is depicting what is typical for Nina though, so I have been expecting we would see it at some point. 

 

 

It seems like the models have been teetering on the edge of that look for days....EPS finally took the bait.  All teles on the EPS are trending the wrong way in the very LR.  I wonder if the return to a classic base state look is in response to the AO/NAO going neutral or if blocking starts to fade due to the return of the base state look? 

The response to the SWE and propensity for blocking so far leads me hedge my bet that that look on the EPS gets can kicked for a while. 

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14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

It has been trending that way for a few runs. Hopefully it is wrong or overstating the pattern shift. It is depicting what is typical for Nina though(Pac ridge/western trough), so I have been expecting we would see it at some point. 

 

 

Ah, but the weakening Nina, a game changer.  

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53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not going to analyze it or freak out but I’ll just put it out there. The 0z EPS is an unmitigated disaster. It lost the poleward EPO ridge and develops a flat central pac ridge which directs the pac firehouse jet right into the US. There isn’t even any transition because that happens so fast the pattern is wrecked before the next flux of the NAO can even do us any good. It’s just one run. GEFS at 6z still looks good. Just hope it’s wrong. It shows exactly what I said my fear was if the N PAC pattern relaxed. 

If true, anyone whomever posts the stupid weeklies should be banned Have you noticed the continuous, almost laughable, repetitive predictable failure of the modeling when it forecast cold or a colder pattern, been happening more and more the last three years, maybe related to the whatever, all I know is modeling can not be trusted and the evolving base state is ruining everything it seems.    

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

It seems like the models have been teetering on the edge of that look for days....EPS finally took the bait.  All teles on the EPS are trending the wrong way in the very LR.  I wonder if the return to a classic base state look is in response to the AO/NAO going neutral or if blocking starts to fade due to the return of the base state look? 

The response to the SWE and propensity for blocking so far leads me hedge my bet that that look on the EPS gets can kicked for a while. 

This is what I am thinking as well. The PV voodoo docs seem to favor a reinforcement of the Strat-Trop coupling that has already been established, at least for a time.  We are always playing with fire on the Pac side with a Nina.

What's the latest on the weakening trend for late wither?

 

 

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Ha I just mentioned that. Is that still a thing?

According to one met is was suppose to be a game changer. Although many mets that I read say the time lag for that to hit our sensible weather takes us to Spring. Two sides there on that one.  Looking for good news this morning and looking at the grass on my way to get some bagels . Will not be long to mowing season. My goodness I was ready just a week ago to move my snow blower to the front of the garage. Been in the back corner since 2016.. 

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is what I am thinking as well. The PV voodoo docs seem to favor a reinforcement of the Strat-Trop coupling that has already been established, at least for a time.  We are always playing with fire on the Pac side with a Nina.

What's the latest on the weakening trend for late wither?

 

 

The forecasted -NAM still seems pretty bullish.

Honestly, this is about the time of year I stop even looking at enso or even strat.  This years warming event has kept me interested a little longer.  But, as you know, any large scale change to a pattern driver has a lag effect too long for me to care much. lol.  

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15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This is what I am thinking as well. The PV voodoo docs seem to favor a reinforcement of the Strat-Trop coupling that has already been established, at least for a time.  We are always playing with fire on the Pac side with a Nina.

What's the latest on the weakening trend for late wither?

 

 

Didn't we also have pac puke for most of last winter?

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9 minutes ago, frd said:

According to one met is was suppose to be a game changer. Although many mets that I read say the time lag for that to hit our sensible weather takes us to Spring. Two sides there on that one.  Looking for good news this morning and looking at the grass on my way to get some bagels . Will not be long to mowing season. My goodness I was ready just a week ago to move my snow blower to the front of the garage. Been in the back corner since 2016.. 

This year I bought a snow blade for my Muck Truck and was really excited to get to use it.  I should know'd that probably jinxed things.  

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3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Didn't we also have pac puke for most of last winter?

Ever since the Super Nino it has been a mess,  and last year was the year of the West Pac hyper warm MJO cycle. Every year it is a negative driver, you pick , West Pac, IO record phase, etc. etc. 

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14 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

The forecasted -NAM still seems pretty bullish.

Honestly, this is about the time of year I stop even looking at enso or even strat.  This years warming event has kept me interested a little longer.  But, as you know, any large scale change to a pattern driver has a lag effect too long for me to care much. lol.  

Well this event is earlier than 2018 that delivered that crazy March. But, this is a Nina and who knows, and I bet the QBO has a role as well. 

But another dive below negative is days away. So guessing another deep dive in the AO may be in the cards. Still no sign of a split but a - NAM state seems probable in cycles. 

5 or more days below zero in negative territory forecasted 

CFSv2

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33 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

The forecasted -NAM still seems pretty bullish.

Honestly, this is about the time of year I stop even looking at enso or even strat.  This years warming event has kept me interested a little longer.  But, as you know, any large scale change to a pattern driver has a lag effect too long for me to care much. lol.  

 

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3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Teleconnection charts have not looked good in the long range for a couple of days and nothing has looked good inside 10 days for weeks on the ensembles so there should not be a lot of shock in here.

 

Teleconnections have been great for weeks on end,  and we have zero snow to prove for it .  

 

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Teleconnections don’t look horrible either. AO and NAO trending up but stay neg, PNA trending down but still lean pos.

Way too much is put on long range. Too much good and too much bad.

All we really need is a return to the Sept to Dec storm track. We get that and we will be fine. The problem is that right as our best temp climo started, the well ran dry.

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