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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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1 minute ago, Ji said:

i dont get this fast flow with blocking/-NAO. I thought everything was supposed to slow down--make things easier to phase with blocking

I think I has to do with the weak ridging in the west. That’s the first thing needed to slow systems down. At least that seems logical to me

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3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The middle to late month time frame is beginning to show a consistent look of either PV lobes dropping into the Great Lakes area, or just a dominant cross-polar flow regime with the 5H bridging nestled over western US/Canada by Day 10+. 

Arctic_invasion.thumb.gif.be1f604ef7aef08d205c6e5f1f579b91.gif

This is not the typical pattern to score big potential unless we get some kind of phasing to occur in the southern US, but this will be a door opening to high ratio fluff from progressive clippers that dive through the northern plains and head eastward. Snow pack will be increasing to the north and west, leading to less chances of modifying airmasses by the time it reaches Mid Atlantic longitude. This will also lay the grounds for a further south baroclinic alignment which could be fruitful for later in winter. Not a slam dunk obviously, but better than where it currently stands. 

Overunning SWFE when HL ridging relaxes. This is a good setup historically as when these cpf looks break down we get smacked. No, I'm not punting mid Jan but as WXUSAF noted the look is more cold and clippers and not big dog verbatim in the heart of this regime.

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1 minute ago, frd said:

Is it safe to assume tha beyond this, when the block  relaxes the odds of a more significant all  snow event increases for the northern Mid-Atlantic region? 

I would think so, but of course, there's no guarantee. As @WinterWxLuvr alluded to above, it should increase the threat for winter wx overall, but anything that cuts would still likely be a messy scenario with overrunning, then a flip due to WAA torching the boundary layer. I think the setup lays the grounds for easier ways to score. Significant snow is all prudent to the setup. If we lose amplification of the NHemi pattern and we shift to a zonal regime, anything of significance will be put on the back burner. 

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22 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I would think so, but of course, there's no guarantee. As @WinterWxLuvr alluded to above, it should increase the threat for winter wx overall, but anything that cuts would still likely be a messy scenario with overrunning, then a flip due to WAA torching the boundary layer. I think the setup lays the grounds for easier ways to score. Significant snow is all prudent to the setup. If we lose amplification of the NHemi pattern and we shift to a zonal regime, anything of significance will be put on the back burner. 

I’m hoping we can keep this high lat blocking as we all are. But I think if we want warning level events we have to flirt with cutters. They can give good events and that sw to ne flow is also what can bring us a good Miller A and cutters can also develop into the hybrids we were talking about in the other thread

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30 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m hoping we can keep this high lat blocking as well are. But I think if we want warning level events we have to flirt with cutters. They can give good events and that sw to ne flow is also what can bring us a good Miller A and cutters can also develop into they hybrids we were talking about in the other thread

The blocking we have currently would be fine but there is a split flow and nothing but Pac air around for the near term. It looks like the pattern evolution will finally get some decent cold in our source region via EPO ridging, but the tradeoff may be a weaker -NAO. We always flirt with failure no matter what the pattern is, but given how we seem to fail more often lately with marginal air even with pretty favorable h5 looks,  I am all for getting some legit cold in here.

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26 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Can you clarify what makes the upcoming pattern a bootleg NAO ridge vs a true H5 block?

Ridging look to H5 contours at 500mb, not closed off. Look at 6z gfs just for an example. At 114 hrs there is ridging in the isobars. Nothing us closed off as a true block. Then look at 276. A closed H5 look several isos deep. That is a true block look vs a ridge. Not saying it will verify just an example.

gfs_z500a_nhem_20.png

gfs_z500a_nhem_47.png

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March might be nasty this year.  If you are one whom believes the -NAM state lingers. 

 

The most important aspect of a major SSW is the long, subseasonal persistence of the negative NAM/weakened vortex in the lower-stratosphere. This raises the likelihood of a neg tropospheric NAM & mid-latitude coldwaves across this timescale. For example, the 2004 SSW:
 
 
Image
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Just now, frd said:

March might be nasty this year.  If you are one whom believes the -NAM state lingers. 

 

The most important aspect of a major SSW is the long, subseasonal persistence of the negative NAM/weakened vortex in the lower-stratosphere. This raises the likelihood of a neg tropospheric NAM & mid-latitude coldwaves across this timescale. For example, the 2004 SSW:
 
 
Image

HM has predicting an Early March Blizzard since 2001 for the east coast...maybe this is the year!

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m hoping we can keep this high lat blocking as we all are. But I think if we want warning level events we have to flirt with cutters. They can give good events and that sw to ne flow is also what can bring us a good Miller A and cutters can also develop into the hybrids we were talking about in the other thread

My favorite part about SWFE events is the ferocity of the thump with a more organized system. No waste on virga, hot and heavy starts, massive aggregates, and typically pastes everything into a wintry scene. I know that you probably really enjoy those living well west of the fall line. Some of the best 12"+ storms are like that in your hood. 

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Even though I'm being half serious....my recollection that in Nina's IF there are any storms around us it typically happens in the South or on the shore. I don't see anything unusual with what some of the models are spitting out. Feel free to correct me, i'm not here to be right just expressing my thought on our current situation

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