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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

haven't read every post here, but i'm not done tracking friday's system.  it looks like it unravels a bit on approach, i'm assuming due to confluence/dry air, but that's a close call.  january 2010 had a northern fringe system as well that surprised.

Jan 2010 was a much more powerful system

But I agree. This could still spread snow into the area.

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4 hours ago, frd said:

Will the Miller B  set up the third storm , for our area ? Thoughts ? 

The miller b looks to be sparked by a vignerons NS wave that’s fueled partially by the increasing thermal gradient as the true cold finally enters the N Amer playing field. But the wavelengths look wrong for us, it’s likely to amplify too far north. Forget the damn miller crap the issue is simple that wave won’t likely have the depth to get a storm under us.  But as that wave amplified the cold will come behind. What happens after depends on a lot of factors. Currently the guidance favors the cold centering to our NW in a gradient pattern. That’s actually not a bad thing provided the blocking stays strong enough to keep the boundary to our south. We don’t want frigid into the Gulf of Mexico unless your goal is to walk across a frozen Potomac. 

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51 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Jan 2010 was a much more powerful system

But I agree. This could still spread snow into the area.

It wasn’t really more powerful from a wave amplitude POV. The surface low was deeper and it had a huge precip shield because it had a much colder airmass to its north which meant much more baroclinicity (FUEL!) and more lift in the WAA to the northeast of the low center.   But from a ground truth POV you’re correct even if this took that same track it wouldn’t produce the same result. 

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2 hours ago, snowmagnet said:

I'm ok with this... we are picking up our new puppy up your way in Hampstead the weekend of the 15th and I have been stressing over not being able to get there in case of snow.  It can snow the 12th and after the 16th...

During a storm it’s dicey but they get the roads good pretty fast after the snow stops up here imo. Good luck!

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It wasn’t really more powerful from a wave amplitude POV. The surface low was deeper and it had a huge precip shield because it had a much colder airmass to its north which meant much more baroclinicity (FUEL!) and more lift in the WAA to the northeast of the low center.   But from a ground truth POV you’re correct even if this took that same track it wouldn’t produce the same result. 

If I remember correctly it was also a total west to east moving low. But I could be remembering incorrectly.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wut

 

1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

Shut up Chuck

He isn’t wrong that our results for having a +PNA-AO from Dec 1 on are pathetic.  If the pattern does flip in Feb to a hostile one the fail will be that DC somehow failed during 2 months of a very decent to at times very good longwave pattern. No it wasn’t perfect but before people point out how this or that feature was slightly off from ideal...my retort is it shouldn’t take a freaking perfect pattern to snow. A lot of the warning events in our past were in good but slightly flawed patterns.  

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If I remember correctly it was also a total west to east moving low. But I could be remembering incorrectly.

The surface low gained some latitude on the coast but the upper level low went w to e. It was snowing in parts of S VA while the low was still near New Orleans. You can get that kind of sprawling WAA snow shield when there is a true cold airmass on top and a better baroclinic zone. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

He isn’t wrong that our results for having a +PNA-AO from Dec 1 on are pathetic.  If the pattern does flip in Feb to a hostile one the fail will be that DC somehow failed during 2 months of a very decent to at times very good longwave pattern. No it wasn’t perfect but before people point out how this or that feature was slightly off from ideal...my retort is it shouldn’t take a freaking perfect pattern to snow. A lot of the warning events in our past were in good but slightly flawed patterns.  

Well it’s only Jan 5. There’s no telling how long a decent pattern will last. Wonder how we would feel if two months from now we had about 200% of normal snow and we’re about -7 in temp departure? Doubt anyone would say we wasted the winter pattern.

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19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Well it’s only Jan 5. There’s no telling how long a decent pattern will last. Wonder how we would feel if two months from now we had about 200% of normal snow and we’re about -7 in temp departure? Doubt anyone would say we wasted the winter pattern.

That wasn’t a prediction. I still bet this works out to some degree. But DC is below where I would have expected right now based on the dominant pattern Dec 1 to now. 

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