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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Next week really seems to come down to the position of the Northern stream s/w's.  If they are progressive and slide east, then the main southern stream s/w just gets washed out and the low either doesn't develop or is just a fish event.  If they are weaker or phase into the southern s/w, then we have big dog potential.  

What model typically handles Northern stream s/w's better? I seem to remember that being a thing a few years ago

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A general pattern observation...most guidance has a similar pattern evolution the next 2 weeks. This initial block is centered south of Greenland into northern Quebec. That’s a bit “extra”. It weakens around day 5 then reorganizes in the next heat flux more towards central Greenland to Baffin. That’s a more ideal location. The window would be during the relax then again after that block reforms further north. 

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A general pattern observation...most guidance has a similar pattern evolution the next 2 weeks. This initial block is centered south of Greenland into northern Quebec. That’s a bit “extra”. It weakens around day 5 then reorganizes in the next heat flux more towards central Greenland to Baffin. That’s a more ideal location. The window would be during the relax then again after that block reforms further north. 

you need to will the models to a storm man.....we cant waste this pattern

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I actually thought it was the euro that handled southern stream waves better and the gfs the northern. But that was the old gfs. Not sure this one handles anything well.

I don’t know.  One model gives us no snow and one model gives us an MECS.  We’ll see which one ends up correct.  

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Question, if you like digital snow more then real how come you complain so much when guidance takes it away at the last minute. Seems it served its purpose already at that point. 

because on the most important run---the run before the actual storm starts...all the blue we worked days for vanishes so all the happy days of great model runs are somewhat negated. But those happy days still cant be taken away and they actually put me in a real good mood online and in person

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8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I actually thought it was the euro that handled southern stream waves better and the gfs the northern. But that was the old gfs. Not sure this one handles anything well.

thats exactly what i thought.

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19 minutes ago, Ji said:

because on the most important run---the run before the actual storm starts...all the blue we worked days for vanishes so all the happy days of great model runs are somewhat negated. But those happy days still cant be taken away and they actually put me in a real good mood online and in person

Do you by any chance hunt animals for the kill but don't eat the meat?

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GEFS are pretty adamant that the coldest anoms in the NH shift to NA in the LR.  Not saying its good or bad for snow prospects but its impressive to see how quick the extreme cold fades across east Asia and forms in NA.  Cross polar flow stole it right out from under them....

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