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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

what was his concern if you don't mind sharing and don't say because it's rain at his house

He thinks this is a quick snow to rain for everyone, but admits it's several days off. From my conservations with Wes over the years, he's generally pessimistic about potential snow events in La Nina winters in these parts.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

He thinks this is a quick snow to rain for everyone, but admits it's several days off. From my conservations with Wes over the years, he's generally pessimistic about potential snow events in La Nina winters in these parts.

My gut does feel like in the end if this phases rain is a bigger risk then suppressed. The blocking is relaxed there and not nearly as much confluence. Luckily the ridge/trough axis looks really good though and the antecedent airmass is decent. Still not good for January but not the rotting dumpster fire it’s been. 

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

He thinks this is a quick snow to rain for everyone, but admits it's several days off. From my conservations with Wes over the years, he's generally pessimistic about potential snow events in La Nina winters in these parts.

Always best to be cautious in our region

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My gut does feel like in the end if this phases rain is a bigger risk then suppressed. The blocking is relaxed there and not nearly as much confluence. Luckily the ridge/trough axis looks really good though and the antecedent airmass is decent. Still not good for January but not the rotting dumpster fire it’s been. 

i think he was more concerned that the ensembles didnt support was the euro was showing

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think he was more concerned that the ensembles didnt support was the euro was showing

Maybe. But if you ignore the dumbass snow maps and silly surface p-type maps, that run verbatim was a wound up coastal hugger with very marginal temps. You of all people should be able to tell us the actual outcome.

That said, its an op run 7 days out with a favorable pattern as advertised on the means.  Next run!

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Maybe. But if you ignore the dumbass snow maps and silly surface p-type maps, that run verbatim was a wound up coastal hugger with very marginal temps. You of all people should be able to tell us the actual outcome.

That said, its an op run 7 days out with a favorable pattern as advertised on the means.  Next run!

its also amazing how quickly he posted that on FB after the euro came out. And you guys think Im negative lol

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9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

80 hours out:scooter: . Not yet brother . DC on south still in the game for now . We'll see where h5 is at tomorrow evening.  If no positive changes by then ...its probably a southern /se Va event but still worth tracking.  Nothing else in the medium range well  inside 7 days .

If it somehow ends up snowing here, I will throw a party around the firepit with weenies and unlimited 120s for all.

Y'all will have to sleep in the woods tho.

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Next week really seems to come down to the position of the Northern stream s/w's.  If they are progressive and slide east, then the main southern stream s/w just gets washed out and the low either doesn't develop or is just a fish event.  If they are weaker or phase into the southern s/w, then we have big dog potential.  

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