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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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  • WxUSAF pinned this topic
1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

At the peak of the storm (00z Wed) you'd have to go to like I81 or State College to find temps at or below 32 while it's in the mid 30s in immediate DC metro.

Too early to worry about that imo. Euro probably a bit over phased. Man is that a sweet kink in the H5 pattern on euro and JMA. I’d take this everyday over suppressed weak waves 

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Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

Too early to worry about that imo. Euro probably a bit over phased. Man is that a sweet kink in the H5 pattern on euro and JMA. I’d take this everyday over suppressed weak waves 

I wouldn't say I'm worried, I'm happy to see a modeled storm that doesn't miss us.  I'm just being cautious because with those temps it's better not to go in with huge expectations (at least where I live in urban heat island hell).  

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Just now, DCTeacherman said:

I wouldn't say I'm worried, I'm happy to see a modeled storm that doesn't miss us.  I'm just being cautious because with those temps it's better not to go in with huge expectations (at least where I live in urban heat island hell).  

This far out - thermals are the least concern. I think we should all be looking at the H5 pattern and how it matches or doesn't match with the surface result. Inside of 120 we can start sweating thermals. Not saying we won't have temp issues - but remember - the best storms usually do have their share of mixing and thermal problems. We'll see. Too early for now. 

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30 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

WRT to 12z EPS, the mean/individual members are not as wound up as the OP. It would argue all snow for everyone north of St. Mary's city. Hope we see the GFS start to catch on.

common man you know the EPS mean wil never be as wound up as the OP especially that far out

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7 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Thanks. Yea, so op is not really supported all that much. Still good to see a potential window though

I think it’s fairly supported at this range but there’s still a lot of spread because we are a week out.  It does seem to be on the extreme edge of the solutions though.  

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