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January 8th-9th threat


BullCityWx
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21 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Some of you experts can weigh in on this , but does it seem like the GFS is on to something, by not being as wide spread event and just scattered? Or would you lean more toward the EURO/EPS , with it being more widespread?

I don't know if it's "on to something" per se; this is the nature of a lot of these ULLs that roll through. There are going to be competing forces within the feature that promote both rising air (more precip) and sinking air (less precip) which is the reason for the "splotchy" look on snow maps. As for the Euro, the more consistent snow map strikes me as just a difference in how the snow map is calculated and not the nature of the precip. Lastly, as a general rule, EPS will always have that smoothed-out look because it's an average of 51 different members. Those members themselves may be splotchy... but together they're look very uniform.

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39 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

I don't know if it's "on to something" per se; this is the nature of a lot of these ULLs that roll through. There are going to be competing forces within the feature that promote both rising air (more precip) and sinking air (less precip) which is the reason for the "splotchy" look on snow maps. As for the Euro, the more consistent snow map strikes me as just a difference in how the snow map is calculated and not the nature of the precip. Lastly, as a general rule, EPS will always have that smoothed-out look because it's an average of 51 different members. Those members themselves may be splotchy... but together they're look very uniform.

Great stuff and thanks for dropping in time to time.

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Just now, Jonathan said:

Is it me or has this thing shifted from overnight Thursday into Friday to mid-day Friday into Friday night? THAT'S definitely not a good trend.

I believe u are right,  but we don't have to worry about sun angle, cause it's still low, but Temps at the ground would be better at night or in the morning of course

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6 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Is it me or has this thing shifted from overnight Thursday into Friday to mid-day Friday into Friday night? THAT'S definitely not a good trend.

Yeah, it seems do be drier with the initial surge of moisture, but then the low kinda backs in towards the coast, allowing moisture to back-build. Could be good for ensuring some snowfall across the board, with less WAA and more consistent banding (after a potential initial thump)

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