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January 8th-9th threat


BullCityWx
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NAM is moving the upper low due east, fully occluded, no neg tilt or phasing. I  don't see how heavy precip makes it to the NC/VA border if you extrapolate out another 12 hours.  Luckily for you guys up there that's right where you want to be 4 days out anyways.

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1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

NAM is moving the upper low due east, fully occluded, no neg tilt or phasing. I  don't see how heavy precip makes it to the NC/VA border if you extrapolate out another 12 hours.  Luckily for you guys up there that's right where you want to be 4 days out anyways.

I disagree... it kinda does go negative tilt , and the precip is headed northeast not due east....

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Also somehow the NAM has a sliver of a warm nose at 850mb that wrecks my profile at hour 84. Not a good sign, hopefully it's just noise and anyone Northwest of the 850mb low will be fine.

Boundary layer temps look great on the NAM as expected... 32-33 at the surface under the heavy returns for the entire upstate and central NC.

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