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Winter 2020/2021 Short Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It has some things going for it, but seems kinda optimistic.  I'd lean on the lower end of the map for here, which would be maybe 2"

There may be some localized 4" areas, but it's gonna have to really overperform. LOT usually is more on the conservative side so I was surprised by this forecast. 

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It has some things going for it, but seems kinda optimistic.  I'd lean on the lower end of the map for here, which would be maybe 2"

More complete write-up in my AFD today, but a few points here: we think the Kuchera ratios are low-balling tomorrow. Kuchera is based off the max wet bulb T from sfc to 500 mb, and warmest temps will be at the sfc.  

 

 

The flaw in the method is that when the DGZ is deep like tomorrow but sfc temps not that cold, it doesn't adjust for favorably deep DGZ, it's strictly based off MaxT aloft. The Cobb method is preferred and averages 15:1, which is what WPC also preferred in their assessment, while the Kuchera is only 9 or 10:1.

 

ECMWF and NAMs have been in good agreement on that corridor of up to or slightly over 0.2" LE, which should fluff up to spots of 3"+ when accounting for the ratio. Our graphic is using a little bit of creative license because in reality the highest total I forecast within the CWA is 2.8", but we went broad in public facing message because if that 0.2"+ LE does occur, then 3"+ amounts are pretty likely.

 

Another wild card is lake enhancement, which actually looks fairly decent for once. We'll see shortly what 00z CAMs show but the 18z NAMs and 12z NMM showed a wind shift to north behind sfc trough passage, which really increases the convergence, plus thermos being solid enough. Above models got the lake enhancement onto IL side for a few hours and then settled into NW IN. Could be a nice bonus wherever that sets up. 219a4a1cdfc1113e87465cd0a7c1a061.jpg&key=993edda28a653e3bccd982eb5a010fa3dc9b9e902e0dab7ca0434778d9f5a283

 

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

how is your glacier doing lol?

Pretty good, about 4" or so.  That epic sleetstorm and subsequent glazing did wonders, plus we've stayed below 40 the past few weeks.

Getting some snizzle now as lift is slowly increasing.  Models have backed off ever so slightly on precip, so getting 2" tonight may be a stretch.  Should still get a good inch hopefully.

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