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Winter 2020/2021 Short Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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As was mentioned, relatively slow motion/pivoting nature could allow these to hang over a particular area for some time.  Will be interesting to see if this is going to rise to the bar of needing a snow squall warning. 18Z-20210114_HRRRNIL_prec_ptype-18-30-50-100.gif.4ebb65b3dfb325c3c63b73bb8e5e19e9.gif    

 

The SQW has a wind component so I don't think we would be issuing one unless it's really ripping under a few of the snow showers tomorrow. That plus temps being near to slightly above 32F should mitigate road impacts some as well.      

 

 

That said, I think we could see 30-40 dbz popcorn tomorrow. If snow shower coverage is more widespread and we're getting higher end impacts, could envision a short fused WWA vs SQW. On order of likelihood of product issuance tomorrow, I'd go SPS, WWA and then very remote chance of SQW.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

The SQW has a wind component so I don't think we would be issuing one unless it's really ripping under a few of the snow showers tomorrow. That plus temps being near to slightly above 32F should mitigate road impacts some as well.      

 

 

That said, I think we could see 30-40 dbz popcorn tomorrow. If snow shower coverage is more widespread and we're getting higher end impacts, could envision a short fused WWA vs SQW. On order of likelihood of product issuance tomorrow, I'd go SPS, WWA and then very remote chance of SQW.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Your first sentence about a wind component was something I didn't remember, so I checked the criteria for SQW.  The wind criteria is not explicit like it is for a blizzard warning, but the visibility criteria for the SQW (less than 1/4 mile) is harder to satisfy without windy conditions.  It would need to be puking snow.  

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It's dud city over here.  Last night's Euro showing several inches pounding this area this evening was ridiculously wrong.  Even the driest models for this area may be too aggressive.  All we are getting is light snow that is struggling to accumulate.  Even 1" may be tough to get at this point.
We'll take it.

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5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It's dud city over here.  Last night's Euro showing several inches pounding this area this evening was ridiculously wrong.  Even the driest models for this area may be too aggressive.  All we are getting is light snow that is struggling to accumulate.  Even 1" may be tough to get at this point.

Sounds like Cedar Rapids is returning to form.  :(

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