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Winter 2020/2021 Short Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

 

Not a single one of those runs had occurred when I posted. 

I thought y'all liked looking at trends at not hugging single model runs, but it appears to be otherwise. Enjoy your dusting that melts the next day. 

There's also a big difference between 2-3" and 7-10", but, of course, you know that. 

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11 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Literally no one is melting down. Some people are just a**holes. 

In all honesty, most are just have some fun. It's really just snow. My advice would be to take it easy, and laugh at yourself a bit in this weenie hobby of ours, and enjoy the contributions from the true professionals that sometimes contribute. I know I do. FWIW...still looks like a couple nice wintry days coming up.

On Cue: " AFTER THE VERY LONG QUIET STRETCH ENDING WITH THE PRECIP THURSDAY-  
THURSDAY NIGHT, A MORE ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH  
AND LIKELY BEYOND DAY 7. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW  
SHOWERS AT TIMES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW   
SATURDAY NIGHT- SUNDAY AND ANOTHER POSSIBLE ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW   
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY."- LOT AFD

If all goes well I can walk the arboretum this weekend and take in the snow covered forests.

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1 minute ago, Baum said:

In all honesty, most are just have some fun. It's really just snow. My advice would be to take it easy, and laugh at yourself a bit in this weenie hobby of ours, and enjoy the contributions from the true professionals that sometimes contribute. I know I do. 

I had a crappy morning and the piling on wasn't helpful. And you say it's just snow, but snow is literally one of my favorite things in the world. Yes, I can't control it, but it doesn't mean I don't get disappointed when I wake up and see NAM and Canadian models trended much further NW with the heavier snow. Who would have imagined saying that was a bad trend would end up causing so much nonsense? 

Regardless, I'm done with it. There's no use trying to engage with some posters and that's fine, I know better now. 

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Quite a read catching up on the posts today. I felt like if anything we had a slight favorable trend of getting anything interesting tomorrow. There's support there for rain changing to a fairly short thump of snow from large scale (mid-level height falls and positive vorticity advection from a vort lobe wrapping around the ULL) and mesoscale from steep lapse rates and 850-700 mb fgen. Limiting factor is residence time of heavier rates and antecedent mild temps.

 

Don't have too much to add on Friday's snow shower potential other than that it's a pretty good synoptic setup for them and[mention=1610]purduewx80[/mention] posted a forecast sounding to highlight this. Finally, I like Sunday for a longer period of light to at times moderate snow with forcing rather modest but good DGZ depth and steep mid-upper lapse rates. None of this should add up to anything more than a few inches in the Chicago metro, but it's certainly a nice change from the long boring stretch.

 

It's always good to keep expectations in check and appreciate the meteorology of some of these setups. I really do think our time is coming for something a lot more fun during the late month period and into February.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

This just got more interesting for eastern Iowa.  The Euro just added a big blob of heavy snow right over me.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

Very nice.  With as much as the precip areas keep dancing around from run to run makes me think many of us could be in for some surprises over the next 48hrs.

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