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Wintry event or cold rain for January 9 NYC subforum.


wdrag
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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I wouldnt give up on the weekend threat just yet but its not looking good for that one.

it might be to our advantage if the week end system gets out of the way to the east and the vort in southeast Canada has time to move out of the way and allow HP to settle into southern Canada feeding in colder air prior to next week system

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12 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

se of where it’s been so likely trending toward other models. Next weeks storm is more promising but way far out 

Agreed north of the MD border, but UK stable s of there.  The following is said without 12z/GEFS, EC, EPS: I am biased to this coming up but the preponderance of evidence as everyone is saying, is southeast of NYC forum or a grazer central NJ, e tip LI. I think this Hatteras storm will deepen NNE before turning east or east northeast out to sea and i think that's what the UK is trying to say, with a northern pivot point axis near DC/BWI. I don't like all the far south scenarios with the craziness of the ne USA upper air.  Just takes a little more sharpening and rather than proceeding out to sea, the coastal would impact the forum.  So, I have not at all conceded that this is out to sea and harmless for the NYC forum. Maybe tomorrow or Wednesday i will have to. For now, I think it continues worthy to monitor.  Let's see if any of the models have an uh-oh change in the next 24 hours.  If not, then it's a bad read on my part. 

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Good Tuesday morning Jan 5: Update of the topic dropped the 8th, and dropped the tag of ice. The preponderance of 00z/06z January 5 2021 guidance favors a miss for this developing mid Atlantic coast nor'easter and so my Jan 1 confidence is probably wrongly over confident for an 8-9 day outlook. However, we're still at 96 hours (4 days) with somewhat delicate northern-southern stream trough interactions in the northeast USA Friday and Saturday.  Some of the guidance has minor amounts of precipitation skimming the NJ coast/e LI with ensembles interestingly showing a little more extensive minor qpf coverage for southern New England. That New England coverage may be due to the eventual development of an upper level low over central or southern New England on Saturday (light wind), and a possibility for a period of easterly flow aloft , caused by the flow interactions of the modeled offshore storm and the northern stream short wave in New England. So it would not surprise to see some light or very light snow on the coasts into CT/MA but for now--- please go with your take on the event. I can't push this occurrence in the face of all the recent 3 days of modeling.  We're still 96 hours in advance of the storms passage and once in a while models make significant adjustments in somewhat uncertain northern -southern stream interactions.

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