Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 hours ago, sn0w said: Yep 8-12 sounds about right...too far east I think to get the 12+ totals. What is considered the overflow res? Is that East Branch/sodam? Or diverting off 202? They've been out fishing on White Pond for a while now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 While I'm generally happy with how the forecast is unfolding for the interior, the currently favored closer to coast track would temper the duration aspect of the storm for our area. A 700mb low track effectively over NYC would mean transient rather than quasi-stationary banding, with the dominant deformation zone not really pivoting until it's way upstate. On the 00z hi-res NAM, I-84 doesn't begin snowing in earnest until around 6 am Monday; dry air starts working its way down to beneath the DGZ by 10 pm. That's obviously a nice comfy window for accumulations, but nothing extraordinary... and I think we all know how "long duration" storms usually work out. Ratios look fine during the meat of the storm – a little better than climo, limited by a rather shallow growth zone and a rather deep riming layer, but generally a good cross-hairs signature. A first call would look something like TEB ∞, HPN 18", SWF 15", POU 12". 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 And here comes the 0Z GFS saying it's about time the HV was the sweet spot in one of these runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Gem not to shabby either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Gem not to shabby either. That’s just ridiculous lol.. someone in NEPA is gonna end up with 30”+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, snywx said: That’s just ridiculous lol.. someone in NEPA is gonna end up with 30”+ Unless it moves 40 miles east, then it's right over us. That 27 is right over my house as it stands. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 euro crushes nepa into nwnj/sny. 20"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 18 hours ago, sn0w said: Yep 8-12 sounds about right...too far east I think to get the 12+ totals. What is considered the overflow res? Is that East Branch/sodam? Or diverting off 202? Oh sorry, I meant diverting. I was thinking of the overflow dam when I typed that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 Did we just get NAM’ed or what?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 32 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Did we just get NAM’ed or what?! Looks awesome... starting to get the look of a very memorable event around here. Hopefully the strongest dynamics keep tickling north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 We just welcomed home someone new yesterday from Eleventh Hour Rescue straight from Georgia. I assume, from my scientific analysis, that welcoming a new dog means MMU is good for at least 18”?. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 The 12z RGEM was a thing of beauty for up here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, North and West said: We just welcomed home someone new yesterday from Eleventh Hour Rescue straight from Georgia. I assume, from my scientific analysis, that welcoming a new dog means MMU is good for at least 18”? . Niiicccceee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 NiiicccceeeIt cancels out the snowblower I got for Christmas. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 Days of drifting around here, through Wednesday it would appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Para GFS gives even POU 27 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Downsloping off the Taconics could be a real thorn in my side. Legendary for OC though... 18+ there seems more likely than not. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Downsloping off the Taconics could be a real thorn in my side. Legendary for OC though... 18+ there seems more likely than not. Yes. I am keeping in mind different forces pro and con that influence accumulation. A good 12-18 for Dutchess seems reasonable, hopefully closer to 18 if we can stay under some good bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Downsloping off the Taconics could be a real thorn in my side. Legendary for OC though... 18+ there seems more likely than not. Rockland too!Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 1 minute ago, nycemt123 said: Rockland too! Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk What's a Rockland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Can't wait for my 2-4" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 What's a Rockland?I mean rockland county looks like its going to get obliterated lolSent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Yes. I am keeping in mind different forces pro and con that influence accumulation. A good 12-18 for Dutchess seems reasonable, hopefully closer to 18 if we can stay under some good bands. I’m reading this correctly that MMU is going to get hit pretty well?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 24 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Can't wait for my 2-4" West of the river is definitely the best place to be for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Can't wait for my 2-4" I got caught in that weird downsloping in March 18, eastern PA got crushed and it was a very run of the mill light snowstorm here. That sucked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I got caught in that weird downsloping in March 18, eastern PA got crushed and it was a very run of the mill light snowstorm here. That sucked! Was that March 7th? Trying to remember how that went down here. I think the one before that was the super wet snow with power outages, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 Was that March 7th? Trying to remember how that went down here. I think the one before that was the super wet snow with power outages, right?March 7th was unreal here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 41 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I got caught in that weird downsloping in March 18, eastern PA got crushed and it was a very run of the mill light snowstorm here. That sucked! I am concerned about Downsloping in Poughkeepsie area lowering our numbers significantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 31, 2021 Share Posted January 31, 2021 2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: Did we just get NAM’ed or what?! 3k NAM is pure porn, well juiced most of the models are a jackpot for our neck of the woods. Hopefully the winds aren’t too high, would cause some incredible drifting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 31, 2021 Author Share Posted January 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Was that March 7th? Trying to remember how that went down here. I think the one before that was the super wet snow with power outages, right? March 7th I recorded 12.1”, wasn’t that one. I see it was March 2nd, I had 1.2”. My notes say “snow at dawn changed to rain and flipped back and forth, back to snow in the afternoon but stuck in between bands, central and eastern Orange missed out while other areas got rocked” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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