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January Banter 2021


Eskimo Joe
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I will try to post pics of tomorrow’s event down here. Just had WWA issued for 2-4”. With this particular system it’s worth noting the models ended up trending toward the GFS solution. Something to keep in mind. Nam was bone dry and now has a decent slug of moisture coming through. GFS the snowiest.

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5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I will try to post pics of tomorrow’s event down here. Just had WWA issued for 2-4”. With this particular system it’s worth noting the models ended up trending toward the GFS solution. Something to keep in mind. Nam was bone dry and now has a decent slug of moisture coming through. GFS the snowiest.

Dang I just looked up your town...you're way down there! Good luck tomorrow!!

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I gotta say since Ralph and Wentz have been posting in this forum forever and a day they sort of kinda belong here but lately they have been real dolts and it's obviously because they have been on the northern fringe of the models. I'm sure they might try to respond with a no i'm not but it's too obvious. My bigger point is if for some reason you feel like posting in another regions forum don't come in with the negatives...we all know them it's our place to point them out not yours. 

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1 minute ago, H2O said:

Calling it now.  The one EPS member that was over Fairfax, VA and skewed the temps will be the 12z operational.  And then this place will die.  Or maybe the most east member.  Not sure.  Wish there was a way to figure this stuff out.

and i'll end up complaining about rain snow lines when I know I shouldn't this far out. Got fooled by the 6z eps's warm-skewed outliers. Now that I've had my coffee I feel better

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12z Suite scorecard...(0 for 2 as of 11 am)

ICON --- disaster (w/ bargaining over maybe its thermals are their usual trash)

GFS ---- primary holds on too long aiming for Ohio which, why? I grew up in Ohio and nothing should aim for there. Miller B hell, some snow front end, but meh if you are big game hunting, okay if you want 4+ inches or so.. 

CMC ---

UKIE ----

EURO ----

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Looks like I came back at the right time :lol: 

You're going to be pretty busy in the panic room if this fails. This is probably our last and best chance of the winter before the pattern change occurs. Maybe if the reload occurs then we get another opportunity to track the next rainstorm?

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12z Suite scorecard...(1 for 3 as of 11:30 am  am)

ICON --- disaster (w/ bargaining over maybe its thermals are their usual trash)

GFS ---- primary holds on too long aiming for Ohio which, why? I grew up in Ohio and nothing should aim for there. Miller B hell, some snow front end, but meh if you are big game hunting, okay if you want 4+ inches or so.. 

CMC ---a hit! area-wide 6+ inches with upwards to a foot some places but also genuine concern for our friends on the lowlands SE of 95 for mix or rain at the transfer. 

UKIE ----

EURO ----

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So the MA snowstorm tracking book is written and follows along like this.

Chapter 1: 1 million PATTERN IS GREAT posts, no storm

Chapter 2: Models have day 10 storm but everyone is jaded and caveats apply

Chapter 3: One model sniffs it out 5 days ahead(usually with an unrealistic run)

Chapter 4: Other models slowly catch on and trends are attempted to be made

Chapter 5: People freak over fringed and suppression and how snow maps don't repeat the same totals from ONE run

Chapter 6: Many of the burned know whats coming but stay quiet or try to temper things because too amped/too wrong a track spells doom for fall line east

Chapter 7: models start to shit the bed except for usual areas

Chapter 8: models hone in on track and amounts

Chapter 9: Same areas get what they always do when they didn't need to fret one damn bit

Chapter 10: DC rains when all is said and done because thats what it does

 

We are in chapter 7

 

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