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January Banter 2021


Eskimo Joe
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The can has definitely been kicked a few times on a possible snowy pattern. We can debate how much, but it’s definitely been kicked. From range, it looked like last nights cold front would usher in legit cold air and set the table for a productive period. Well, not so much. Yes the 7th and 11th January threats were “gravy” (we thought) before a great pattern, but those both failed for different reasons then we expected. 
 

Now it does look like we will at least get some chilly air starting in another week, but that tepid chill looks too suppressive. So we may have to wait until that relaxes, at which point that tepid chill could turn back to our standard 5-10F above normal. 

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31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The can has definitely been kicked a few times on a possible snowy pattern. We can debate how much, but it’s definitely been kicked. From range, it looked like last nights cold front would usher in legit cold air and set the table for a productive period. Well, not so much. Yes the 7th and 11th January threats were “gravy” (we thought) before a great pattern, but those both failed for different reasons then we expected. 
 

Now it does look like we will at least get some chilly air starting in another week, but that tepid chill looks too suppressive. So we may have to wait until that relaxes, at which point that tepid chill could turn back to our standard 5-10F above normal. 

It has, and I have bemoaned this lame ass cold front. Realistically, the models were probably too quick getting cold into the source region and moving it east from there. The upcoming cold as advertised is by no means brutal, but we don't need the vodka. We need enough of a cold push to shift the thermal boundary, and that looks realistic. Maybe that helps with keeping shortwaves more robust as they move eastward, in conjunction with a bit of relaxation with the NAO towards the end of the month.

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6 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Who will be the first to say the gfs is wrong showing snow after they complained and whined that it wasn't showing snow?

Damn, those NCEP programmers need to get it right!

IF (precip over DC) 

THEN preciptype = rain

AND T2M = 33

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14 hours ago, snowfan said:

2 25 inchers a year is being a little greedy :)

Maybe we just agree that Jis idea of only 2 snowfalls a season sucks. 

I agree that’s greedy but I didn’t set the premise or the ratios @Ji did.  A 50” winter for me is actually less above normal then a 20” winter is in DC!   A 20” DC winter is equivalent to a 57” winter here.

ETA: but if we aren’t going to adjust for local climo then I’m a hard no. In the last 20 years only 3 were worse then 20” so I’d take my chances lol 

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4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

The can has definitely been kicked a few times on a possible snowy pattern. We can debate how much, but it’s definitely been kicked. From range, it looked like last nights cold front would usher in legit cold air and set the table for a productive period. Well, not so much. Yes the 7th and 11th January threats were “gravy” (we thought) before a great pattern, but those both failed for different reasons then we expected. 
 

Now it does look like we will at least get some chilly air starting in another week, but that tepid chill looks too suppressive. So we may have to wait until that relaxes, at which point that tepid chill could turn back to our standard 5-10F above normal. 

 

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

It has, and I have bemoaned this lame ass cold front. Realistically, the models were probably too quick getting cold into the source region and moving it east from there. The upcoming cold as advertised is by no means brutal, but we don't need the vodka. We need enough of a cold push to shift the thermal boundary, and that looks realistic. Maybe that helps with keeping shortwaves more robust as they move eastward, in conjunction with a bit of relaxation with the NAO towards the end of the month.

This next cold shot is different because the epo finally goes negative and injects some arctic air. Guidance continually tried to cool the N American profile at range and in defense that’s what historically SHOULD happen this time of year. Additionally even when the pattern in the pacific reverses and the coldest air shifts to N Amer it’s pathetic. Frankly the only place that seems to sustain truly arctic cold air masses lately regardless of the pattern is Siberia. 

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8 minutes ago, frd said:

GFS does not have the proper physics to handle this upcoming complex weather evolution. Like CAPE said,  the model will eventually react to the block and the press of the baroclinic zone. 

It'll be showing 2 feet of snow area wide by Wednesday's 12z runs. Book it. This is our storm until it isnt

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